Modeling moneyness volatility in measuring exchange rate volatility

Paper

Hoque, Ariful and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2011. "Modeling moneyness volatility in measuring exchange rate volatility." CIFEr 2011: IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics . Paris, France 11 - 15 Apr 2011 Piscataway, NJ. United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFER.2011.5953555
Paper/Presentation Title

Modeling moneyness volatility in measuring exchange rate volatility

Presentation TypePaper
AuthorsHoque, Ariful (Author) and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar (Author)
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings of the IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics (CIFEr 2011)
Number of Pages6
Year2011
Place of PublicationPiscataway, NJ. United States
ISBN9781424499335
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1109/CIFER.2011.5953555
Web Address (URL) of Paperhttp://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5953555
Conference/EventCIFEr 2011: IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics
Event Details
CIFEr 2011: IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics
Event Date
11 to end of 15 Apr 2011
Event Location
Paris, France
Abstract

The implied volatility (IV) is widely believed to be the
best measure of exchange rate volatility. Despite its widespread usage, the IV approach suffers from an obvious chicken-egg problem: obtaining an unbiased IV requires the options to be priced correctly and calculating option prices accurately requires an unbiased IV. We contribute to this literature by developing a new model for exchange rate volatility which we term as the “moneyness volatility (MV)”. Besides eliminating the chickenegg problem of IV, the MV approach outperforms the IV in forecasting ability in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. The F-test, Granger-Newbold test and Diebold-Mariano test results
consistently reveal that MV outperforms IV in estimating as well as forecasting exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, test results reveal that our approach works well for the six major currency options. Our pioneering approach in modeling exchange rate volatility has far-reaching implications for academicians, professional traders and risk managers.

Keywordsimplied volatility; moneyness volatility; realized volatility; Granger-Newbold test; Diebold-Mariano test
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350208. Investment and risk management
380110. International economics
380203. Economic models and forecasting
Public Notes

© 2011 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

Byline AffiliationsUniversity of South Australia
School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2009. "Overview of corporate restructuring." Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Vishwanath, S. R. (ed.) Advanced corporate finance. New Delhi, india. Prentice Hall.
Financing a firm's growth
Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2009. "Financing a firm's growth." Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Vishwanath, S. R. (ed.) Advanced corporate finance. New Delhi, India. Prentice Hall.
Dividend reductions and signaling in an imputation environment
Balachandran, Balasingham, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, Theobald, Michael and Vidanapathirana, Berty. 2009. "Dividend reductions and signaling in an imputation environment ." Benson, Karen (ed.) AsianFA 2009: Asian Finance Association International Conference. Brisbane, Australia 30 Jun - 03 Jul 2009 Brisbane, Australia.
Foreign institutional investors and security returns: evidence from Indian stock exchanges
Ananthanarayanan, Sandhya, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Sen, Nilanjan. 2009. "Foreign institutional investors and security returns: evidence from Indian stock exchanges ." 7th INFINITI Conference on International Finance 2009 - Credit Markets, Credit Institutions and Macroeconomic Volatility. Dublin, Ireland 08 - 09 Jun 2009 Dublin, Ireland.
When the going gets tough: board capital and survival of new economy IPO firms
Chancharat, Nongnit, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Tian, Gary. 2009. "When the going gets tough: board capital and survival of new economy IPO firms." Benson, Karen and Ding, David K. (ed.) Asian FA 2009: New Knowledge...for Finance. Brisbane, Australia 30 Jun - 03 Jul 2009 Brisbane, Australia.
When is two really company?: the effects of competition and regulation on corporate governance
Udayasankar, Krishna, Das, Shobha S. and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2008. "When is two really company?: the effects of competition and regulation on corporate governance." 12th New Zealand Finance Colloquium. Palmerston North, New Zealand 14 - 15 Feb 2008 Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Lockup expiration, insider selling and bid-ask spreads
Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Thong, Tiong Yang. 2008. "Lockup expiration, insider selling and bid-ask spreads." International Review of Economics and Finance. 17 (2), pp. 230-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2007.06.005
Calibration of biokinetic model for acetate biodegradation using combined respirometric and titrimetric measurements
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Pradhan, N. M.. 2010. "Calibration of biokinetic model for acetate biodegradation using combined respirometric and titrimetric measurements." Bioresource Technology. 101 (5), pp. 1426-1434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2009.07.012
Order aggressiveness of institutional and individual investors
Duong, Huu Nhan, Kalev, Petko and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2009. "Order aggressiveness of institutional and individual investors." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. 17 (5), pp. 533-546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2009.05.001
Corporate governance and cost of equity: do financial development and legal origin matter?
Tourani-Rad, Alireza, Gupta, Kartick and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekar. 2010. "Corporate governance and cost of equity: do financial development and legal origin matter?" IGIDR 2010: 1st Emerging Markets Finance Conference. Bombay, India 15 - 16 Dec 2010 Mumbai, India.
Can we decode the messages of activated sludge through the respirograms?
Hoque, Muhammad A., Aravinthan, Vasantha and Pradhan, Nishant M.. 2009. "Can we decode the messages of activated sludge through the respirograms?" Water, Air and Soil Pollution: an international journal of environmental pollution. 9 (5/6), pp. 449-459. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11267-009-9238-6
Modeling volatility in foreign currency option pricing
Hoque, Ariful, Chan, Felix and Manzur, Meher. 2009. "Modeling volatility in foreign currency option pricing." Multinational Finance Journal. 13 (1/2), pp. 181-200.
Efficiency of the foreign currency options market
Hoque, Ariful, Chan, Felix and Manzur, Meher. 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign currency options market." Global Finance Journal. 19 (2), pp. 157-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2008.02.002
Assessment on activated sludge models for acetate biodegradation under aerobic conditions
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Pradhan, N. M.. 2009. "Assessment on activated sludge models for acetate biodegradation under aerobic conditions." Water Science and Technology. 60 (4), pp. 983-994. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2009.446
Evaluation of simultaneous storage and growth model to explain aerobic biodegradation of acetate
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Pradhan, N. M.. 2008. "Evaluation of simultaneous storage and growth model to explain aerobic biodegradation of acetate." ISBT 2008: 1st International Society of BioTechnology Conference. Gangtok, India 28 - 30 Dec 2008 Indore, India.
Respirometric and titrimetric techniques for monitoring aerobic biodegradation of surfactant
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Porter, M.. 2008. "Respirometric and titrimetric techniques for monitoring aerobic biodegradation of surfactant." ISBT 2008: 1st International Society of BioTechnology Conference. Gangtok, India 28 - 30 Dec 2008 Indore, India.