A proposed solution for the chicken-egg dilemma in pricing currency options

Article


Hoque, Ariful and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2013. "A proposed solution for the chicken-egg dilemma in pricing currency options." Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal. 7 (2), pp. 71-86. https://doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v7i2.6
Article Title

A proposed solution for the chicken-egg dilemma in pricing currency options

ERA Journal ID40372
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsHoque, Ariful (Author) and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar (Author)
Journal TitleAustralasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal
Journal Citation7 (2), pp. 71-86
Number of Pages16
Year2013
PublisherUniversity of Wollongong
Place of PublicationWollongong, Australia
ISSN1834-2000
1834-2019
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v7i2.6
Web Address (URL)http://ro.uow.edu.au/aabfj/vol7/iss2/6/
Abstract

The implied volatility (IV) estimation process suffers from an obvious chicken-egg dilemma: obtaining an unbiased IV requires the options to be priced correctly and calculating an accurate option price (OP) requires an unbiased IV. We address this critical issue in two steps. First, the Granger causality test is employed, which confirms the chicken-and-egg problem in the IV computing process. Secondly, the concept of 'moneyness volatility (MV)'is introduced as an alternative to IV. MV is modelled based on an option's moneyness (OM)during the life of the option's contract. The F-test, Granger-Newbold test and Diebold-Mariano test results consistently show that MV outperforms IV in estimating the exchange rate volatility for pricing options. Further, these series of tests across six major currency options substantiate the validity as well as the reliability of the results. We posit that MV offers a unique solution for pricing currency options accurately.

Keywordscurrency options pricing; implied volatility; moneyness volatility; Granger causality test; Granger-Newbold
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350208. Investment and risk management
380302. Macroeconomic theory
380112. Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory)
Public Notes

© 2013 Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal and Authors. This publication is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purposes of study, research, or review, but is subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgment of the source.

Byline AffiliationsMurdoch University
School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2009. "Financing a firm's growth." Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Vishwanath, S. R. (ed.) Advanced corporate finance. New Delhi, India. Prentice Hall.
Dividend reductions and signaling in an imputation environment
Balachandran, Balasingham, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, Theobald, Michael and Vidanapathirana, Berty. 2009. "Dividend reductions and signaling in an imputation environment ." Benson, Karen (ed.) AsianFA 2009: Asian Finance Association International Conference. Brisbane, Australia 30 Jun - 03 Jul 2009 Brisbane, Australia.
Foreign institutional investors and security returns: evidence from Indian stock exchanges
Ananthanarayanan, Sandhya, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Sen, Nilanjan. 2009. "Foreign institutional investors and security returns: evidence from Indian stock exchanges ." 7th INFINITI Conference on International Finance 2009 - Credit Markets, Credit Institutions and Macroeconomic Volatility. Dublin, Ireland 08 - 09 Jun 2009 Dublin, Ireland.
When the going gets tough: board capital and survival of new economy IPO firms
Chancharat, Nongnit, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Tian, Gary. 2009. "When the going gets tough: board capital and survival of new economy IPO firms." Benson, Karen and Ding, David K. (ed.) Asian FA 2009: New Knowledge...for Finance. Brisbane, Australia 30 Jun - 03 Jul 2009 Brisbane, Australia.
When is two really company?: the effects of competition and regulation on corporate governance
Udayasankar, Krishna, Das, Shobha S. and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2008. "When is two really company?: the effects of competition and regulation on corporate governance." 12th New Zealand Finance Colloquium. Palmerston North, New Zealand 14 - 15 Feb 2008 Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Lockup expiration, insider selling and bid-ask spreads
Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar and Thong, Tiong Yang. 2008. "Lockup expiration, insider selling and bid-ask spreads." International Review of Economics and Finance. 17 (2), pp. 230-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2007.06.005
Calibration of biokinetic model for acetate biodegradation using combined respirometric and titrimetric measurements
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Pradhan, N. M.. 2010. "Calibration of biokinetic model for acetate biodegradation using combined respirometric and titrimetric measurements." Bioresource Technology. 101 (5), pp. 1426-1434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2009.07.012
Order aggressiveness of institutional and individual investors
Duong, Huu Nhan, Kalev, Petko and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar. 2009. "Order aggressiveness of institutional and individual investors." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. 17 (5), pp. 533-546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2009.05.001
Corporate governance and cost of equity: do financial development and legal origin matter?
Tourani-Rad, Alireza, Gupta, Kartick and Krishnamurti, Chandrasekar. 2010. "Corporate governance and cost of equity: do financial development and legal origin matter?" IGIDR 2010: 1st Emerging Markets Finance Conference. Bombay, India 15 - 16 Dec 2010 Mumbai, India.
Can we decode the messages of activated sludge through the respirograms?
Hoque, Muhammad A., Aravinthan, Vasantha and Pradhan, Nishant M.. 2009. "Can we decode the messages of activated sludge through the respirograms?" Water, Air and Soil Pollution: an international journal of environmental pollution. 9 (5/6), pp. 449-459. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11267-009-9238-6
Modeling volatility in foreign currency option pricing
Hoque, Ariful, Chan, Felix and Manzur, Meher. 2009. "Modeling volatility in foreign currency option pricing." Multinational Finance Journal. 13 (1/2), pp. 181-200.
Efficiency of the foreign currency options market
Hoque, Ariful, Chan, Felix and Manzur, Meher. 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign currency options market." Global Finance Journal. 19 (2), pp. 157-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2008.02.002
Assessment on activated sludge models for acetate biodegradation under aerobic conditions
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Pradhan, N. M.. 2009. "Assessment on activated sludge models for acetate biodegradation under aerobic conditions." Water Science and Technology. 60 (4), pp. 983-994. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2009.446
Evaluation of simultaneous storage and growth model to explain aerobic biodegradation of acetate
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Pradhan, N. M.. 2008. "Evaluation of simultaneous storage and growth model to explain aerobic biodegradation of acetate." ISBT 2008: 1st International Society of BioTechnology Conference. Gangtok, India 28 - 30 Dec 2008 Indore, India.
Respirometric and titrimetric techniques for monitoring aerobic biodegradation of surfactant
Hoque, M. A., Aravinthan, V. and Porter, M.. 2008. "Respirometric and titrimetric techniques for monitoring aerobic biodegradation of surfactant." ISBT 2008: 1st International Society of BioTechnology Conference. Gangtok, India 28 - 30 Dec 2008 Indore, India.