A new mathematical model to determine loss in interconnected industry systems

A new mathematical model to determine loss in interconnected industry systems

In this paper, the terms disaster is conceptualised and explained as an event or a group of events with the corresponding outcomes. An event is described in detail by its severity and size. The corresponding numerical outcome of the event is redefined by magnitude of damage. The damage may be categorised as physical, social, and psychological and the consequential aspect of damage may be shown as the economic loss. The loss can be the output degradation of one industry of the economy. The relationships between the various aspects of the damage mentioned are clarified in this paper. The outputdegradation may spread to other industries in an economy through the interaction linkages between the affected industry and other industries. In this paper, a new mathematical model is developed based on the input-output model. The model can measure the economic loss via interconnected linkage and the parameters of the model are estimated by three innovative methods. The stability, limitation, and application of the model are also discussed and the event size distribution is considered as an additional random factor. Therefore a random distribution is linked to the model and the model is tested with a numerical example.

Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions.