Dating the 'world business cycle'

Article

Banerji, Anirvan, Layton, Allan P. and Achuthan, Lakshman. 2012. "Dating the 'world business cycle'." Applied Economics. 44 (16), pp. 2051-2063. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.558479
Article Title

Dating the 'world business cycle'

ERA Journal ID40291
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsBanerji, Anirvan (Author), Layton, Allan P. (Author) and Achuthan, Lakshman (Author)
Journal TitleApplied Economics
Journal Citation44 (16), pp. 2051-2063
Number of Pages13
Year2012
PublisherTaylor & Francis
Place of PublicationAbingdon, Oxon. United Kingdom
ISSN0003-6846
1466-4283
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.558479
Abstract

By mid-2008 the world was witnessing the unfolding of a relatively rare macroeconomic phenomenon, namely, the onset of what one might call a synchronized international – or 'world' – recession. But what exactly is a
'synchronized world recession'? This article proposes a practical definition of a 'synchronized world recession' and a putative set of historical post-WWII dates for a 'world business cycle chronology'. Further, using a constructed 'world coincident index of economic indicators' and an associated 'world leading index of economic indicators', this article demonstrates that evidence was available from early in the second half of 2007 that the world was indeed sliding inexorably towards its fourth synchronized world recession since WWII (although, interestingly, already its second of the twenty-first century!).

Keywordsworld business cycle; synchronisation; business cycle dating; forecasting business cycles; synchronized international recession
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350706. International business
440499. Development studies not elsewhere classified
380203. Economic models and forecasting
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Byline AffiliationsEconomic Cycle Research Institute, United States
Faculty of Business
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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