Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: a decomposition analysis

Article


Shahiduzzaman, Md. and Layton, Allan. 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: a decomposition analysis ." Applied Energy. 150, pp. 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.007
Article Title

Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: a decomposition analysis

ERA Journal ID4005
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsShahiduzzaman, Md. (Author) and Layton, Allan (Author)
Journal TitleApplied Energy
Journal Citation150, pp. 25-35
Number of Pages11
Year2015
Place of PublicationKidlington, OX. United Kingdom
ISSN0306-2619
1872-9118
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.007
Abstract

This paper examines the asymmetry of changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions using yearly data from 1949 and monthly data from 1973 for the United States (US). In addition, decomposition analysis is applied to investigate the relative roles of various proximate contributing factors to observed changes in total and per capita CO2 emissions and emissions intensity, over business cycle phases. The results suggest, inter alia, that aggregate emissions and emissions intensity reduce much faster in contractions than they increase in expansions. In addition, unlike the three previous expansions, in the most recent post-GFC US expansion, emissions per capita have continued to decline, and at a rate very similar to the rate of reduction in preceding contractions. This suggests the real possibility that the most recent contraction may have had an ongoing impact on the path of per capita emissions well beyond the immediate impact experienced during the contraction itself.

Keywordsbusiness cycle; CO2 emissions; decomposition analysis
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020380105. Environment and resource economics
380304. Microeconomic theory
389902. Ecological economics
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Byline AffiliationsAustralian Centre for Sustainable Business and Development
School of Commerce
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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