Decomposition analysis to examine Australia's 2030 GHGs emissions target: how hard will it be to achieve?

Article

Shahiduzzaman, Md and Layton, Allan. 2015. "Decomposition analysis to examine Australia's 2030 GHGs emissions target: how hard will it be to achieve?" Economic Analysis and Policy. 48, pp. 25-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2015.10.003
Article Title

Decomposition analysis to examine Australia's 2030 GHGs emissions target: how hard will it be to achieve?

ERA Journal ID18341
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsShahiduzzaman, Md (Author) and Layton, Allan (Author)
Journal TitleEconomic Analysis and Policy
Journal Citation48, pp. 25-34
Number of Pages10
Year2015
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationAustralia
ISSN0313-5926
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2015.10.003
Web Address (URL)http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592615300953
Abstract

The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve
this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy
efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from
these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

KeywordsGHGs emissions; decomposition analysis; Australia
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020380105. Environment and resource economics
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Byline AffiliationsQueensland University of Technology
Academic Division
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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