To move or stay? A cellular automata model to predict urban growth in coastal regions amidst rising sea levels
Article
Wang, Siqin, Liu, Yan, Feng, Yongjiu and Lei, Zhenkun. 2021. "To move or stay? A cellular automata model to predict urban growth in coastal regions amidst rising sea levels." International Journal of Digital Earth: a new journal for a new vision. 14 (9), pp. 1213-1235. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2021.1946178
| Article Title | To move or stay? A cellular automata model to predict urban growth in coastal regions amidst rising sea levels |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 41870 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Wang, Siqin, Liu, Yan, Feng, Yongjiu and Lei, Zhenkun |
| Journal Title | International Journal of Digital Earth: a new journal for a new vision |
| Journal Citation | 14 (9), pp. 1213-1235 |
| Number of Pages | 23 |
| Year | 02 Sep 2021 |
| Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
| ISSN | 1753-8947 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2021.1946178 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17538947.2021.1946178 |
| Abstract | Low-lying coastal cities are widely acknowledged as the most densely populated places of urban settlement; they are also more vulnerable to risks resulting from intensive land use and land cover change, human activities, global climate change, and the rising sea levels. This study aims to predict how urban growth is affected by sea level rise (SLR) in the Australian context. We develop an urban cellular automata model incorporating urban planning policies as potential drivers or constraints of urban growth under different SLR scenarios and adaption strategies. Drawing on data capturing the socioeconomic and environmental factors in South East Queensland, Australia, our model is positioned to address one core research question: how does SLR affect future urban growth and human resettlement? Results show that urban growth in coastal regions varies depending on the extent to which the sea level rises and is affected by a combination of factors relating to urban planning and human adaptation strategies. Our study demonstrates the complexity of urban growth in coastal regions and the nuanced outcomes under different adaptation strategies in the context of rising sea levels. |
| Keywords | Climate change; Cellular automata; Sea level rise; Urban growth; Human settlement |
| Byline Affiliations | University of Queensland |
| Tongji University, China | |
| Shanghai Ocean University, China | |
| Library Services |
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Liu, Yan and Phinn, Stuart. 2005. "Modelling the driving forces of Sydney's urban development (1971-96) in a cellular environment." Applied Geographic Information Systems (GIS). 1 (3). https://doi.org/10.2104/ag050027This item comprises data from the following sources: Web of Science