Temperature and precipitation trend analysis of the Iraq Region under SRES scenarios during the twenty-first century

Temperature and precipitation trend analysis of the Iraq Region under SRES scenarios during the twenty-first century

Iraq is classified as the fifth most vulnerable country in the world to decreased water and food availability, extreme temperatures, and associated health problems. The current study aims to analyze the historical and current climate of Iraq by studying the climatic characteristics of annual, monthly, and seasonal averages of temperature and precipitation for the observed period 1971–2020. The Coupled Global Climate Model (CCSM3) based on the National Center for Atmospheric (NCAR) used to study the changes of temperature and precipitation during the twenty-first century, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which includes the low B1, medium A1B, and high A2 future emission scenarios. During 1971–2020, the results showed that the temperature anomaly increased to +2.1 °C, and precipitation anomaly decreased to −84 mm in 2020, especially in the last decade of the twentieth century, due to drought and increase temperature and climate change consequences. The southern and southwestern regions of Iraq are the most affected by both high temperatures and lack of precipitation. The temperature is projected to increase by 0.4 °C, 1.2 °C, and 2.4 °C for B1, A1B, and A2, respectively, in 2099, while the precipitation is projected to greatest decrease under A1B from 121 mm in 2050 to 104 mm in 2099. Understanding and predicting climate change is vital to clarifying its potential future consequences for society and policy-making, as Iraq is one of the five most vulnerable countries in the world against climate change.

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