Application of generalized intervention analysis model
Article
Article Title | Application of generalized intervention analysis model |
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Article Category | Article |
Authors | Hu, Xiaohua (Author) and Zhang, Zhongwei (Author) |
Journal Title | Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management |
Journal Citation | 6 (1), pp. 17-23 |
Number of Pages | 7 |
Year | 2019 |
Place of Publication | India |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.21276/sjebm.2019.6.1.4 |
Web Address (URL) | https://saspjournals.com/sjebm-61/ |
Abstract | In this paper, the intervention analysis model has been generalized in the sense that its intervention function either being a jumping function used to describe the continuing intervention or a unit impulse function used to describe the transient intervention has been replaced with a unified function, which represents an intervention process, denotes the amplitude (or strength) of the impact of intervention events at intervention time, denotes the decay factor of continuing process. Applying the generalized model to predict the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Hainan province from 1989 to 2016, as a Government intervention was introduced in 2010, results in a 60% of improvement in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), when compared with the original model. |
Keywords | intervention event, jump function, unit impulsive function, generalized intervention analysis model, Hainan GDP |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 490501. Applied statistics |
380203. Economic models and forecasting | |
Byline Affiliations | Hainan Normal University, China |
School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5172/application-of-generalized-intervention-analysis-model
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