Application of generalized intervention analysis model

Article

Hu, Xiaohua and Zhang, Zhongwei. 2019. "Application of generalized intervention analysis model." Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management. 6 (1), pp. 17-23. https://doi.org/10.21276/sjebm.2019.6.1.4
Article Title

Application of generalized intervention analysis model

Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsHu, Xiaohua (Author) and Zhang, Zhongwei (Author)
Journal TitleScholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management
Journal Citation6 (1), pp. 17-23
Number of Pages7
Year2019
Place of PublicationIndia
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.21276/sjebm.2019.6.1.4
Web Address (URL)https://saspjournals.com/sjebm-61/
Abstract

In this paper, the intervention analysis model has been generalized in the sense that its intervention function either being a jumping function used to describe the continuing intervention or a unit impulse function used to describe the transient intervention has been replaced with a unified function, which represents an intervention process, denotes the amplitude (or strength) of the impact of intervention events at intervention time, denotes the decay factor of continuing process. Applying the generalized model to predict the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Hainan province from 1989 to 2016, as a Government intervention was introduced in 2010, results in a 60% of improvement in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), when compared with the original model.

Keywordsintervention event, jump function, unit impulsive function, generalized intervention analysis model, Hainan GDP
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020490501. Applied statistics
380203. Economic models and forecasting
Byline AffiliationsHainan Normal University, China
School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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