A probabilistic method for forensic cost estimating of infrastructure projects

Article

Signor, Regis, Love, Peter E. D., Olatunji, Oluwole, Marchiori, Fernanda F. and Gripp, William G.. 2016. "A probabilistic method for forensic cost estimating of infrastructure projects." Applied Mathematical Modelling: simulation and computation for engineering and environmental systems. 40 (21-22), pp. 9197-9211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2016.05.025
Article Title

A probabilistic method for forensic cost estimating of infrastructure projects

ERA Journal ID48
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsSignor, Regis (Author), Love, Peter E. D. (Author), Olatunji, Oluwole (Author), Marchiori, Fernanda F. (Author) and Gripp, William G. (Author)
Journal TitleApplied Mathematical Modelling: simulation and computation for engineering and environmental systems
Journal Citation40 (21-22), pp. 9197-9211
Number of Pages15
Year2016
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0307-904X
1872-8480
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2016.05.025
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X1630275X
Abstract

To determine the existence of overpricing in infrastructure projects a deterministic approach has been typically used by the Brazilian Federal Police. Yet, Judges have often found it too difficult to determine if overpricing had occurred as contractors have tended to claim their projects were ‘unique’ and therefore subjected to price increases. Consequently, Judges have had to consider the likelihood of an error occurring, which has more often led to application of the in dubio pro reo principle. To address the pervasive issue of overpricing in Brazilian infrastructure projects, a novel and robust probabilistic method that utilizes ‘distribution fitting’ using empirical data to forensically determine its occurrence is presented. Considering the limited research that has examined forensic cost estimating in construction, it is promulgated that the proposed approach can be used to support the legal fraternities worldwide to obtain a criminal conviction for overpricing of public infrastructure projects.

KeywordsBrazil; Corruption; Forensics cost estimating; Infrastructure; Overpricing; Probability distribution
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020330299. Building not elsewhere classified
330207. Quantity surveying
330203. Building industry studies
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Byline AffiliationsFederal Police of Brazil
Curtin University
Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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