Causal relationship between project financing and overruns in major dam projects in Africa

Article

Olatunji, Oluwole Alfred, Rotimi, James Olabode Bamidele, Rotimi, Funmilayo Ebu and Silva, Chathurani C.W.. 2024. "Causal relationship between project financing and overruns in major dam projects in Africa." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2023-0286
Article Title

Causal relationship between project financing and overruns in major dam projects in Africa

ERA Journal ID41005
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsOlatunji, Oluwole Alfred, Rotimi, James Olabode Bamidele, Rotimi, Funmilayo Ebu and Silva, Chathurani C.W.
Journal TitleEngineering, Construction and Architectural Management
Number of Pages29
Year2024
PublisherEmerald
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0969-9988
1365-232X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2023-0286
Web Address (URL)https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/ECAM-03-2023-0286/full/html
Abstract

Purpose
Cost and schedule overruns are rife in dam projects. Normative evidence espouses overruns as though they are inimical to development and prosperity aspirations of stakeholders. This study examines the causal relationship between project financing and overruns.

Design/methodology/approach
Causative data were extracted from completion reports of 28 major dam projects in Africa. Each of the projects was financed jointly by up to 10 international development lenders. Relationships between causes of overruns and project outcomes were analysed.

Findings
Analyses elicit indicators of remarkable correlations between finance procedures and project outcomes. Lenders’ disposition to risk attenuation was the main debacles to project success. Interests had mounted, whilst release of fund was erratic and ill-timed. Finance objectives and mechanisms were grossly inadequate for projects’ intense bifurcations. Projects had slowed or stalled because lenders’ risks attenuation processes were purposed to favour lenders’ objectives, and not projects’ interests. In addition, findings also show project owners’ own funds and the number of lenders to a single project correlate with overruns.

Practical implications
Findings imply commercial complexities around major projects. They also show transactions are shaped by subtle (mis)trust behaviours in project finance procedures. Thus, scholarly solutions to project performance issues should consider behavioural issues of stakeholding parties more broadly, beyond contractors and project owners. Project finance ecosystems are vulnerable to major actors’ self-interests, opportunism and predatory conducts. Borrowers would manage this by developing and improving their capacity to build resilience and trust. Evidence shows intense borrower nations in Africa have limited capacity and acuity for these.

Originality/value
This study contextualises megaprojects in complexity rather than cost. Its additionality is in how finance steers absolute control of project environment away from project owners and how finance administration triggers risks and overrun.

KeywordsAfrica; Causality; Dam; Developing countries; Project finance; Project outcome; Risk management; Water infrastructure; Zero vision
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020330202. Building construction management and project planning
Public Notes

The accessible file is the accepted version of the paper. Please refer to the URL for the published version.

Byline AffiliationsSchool of Surveying and Built Environment
Massey University, New Zealand
Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand
University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka
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