A spatial temporal decision framework for adaptation to sea level rise
Article
Article Title | A spatial temporal decision framework for adaptation to sea level rise |
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ERA Journal ID | 4673 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Sahin, Oz and Mohamed, Sherif |
Journal Title | Environmental Modelling and Software |
Journal Citation | 46, pp. 129-141 |
Number of Pages | 13 |
Year | Aug 2013 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 1364-8152 |
1873-6726 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.03.004 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815213000558 |
Abstract | There is a strong link between decision making and environmental stresses. Two dilemmas confront decision makers: how and when to adapt to sea level rise, due to complexities of environmental systems and the changing nature of the decision making process. This process is inherently complex and often involves many stakeholders with conflicting views. Considering the complexity and dynamic nature of coastal systems, this paper introduces a Spatial Temporal Decision framework to assess coastal vulnerability, and the adaptation alternatives to SLR. The STD is based upon a combination of: System Dynamics modelling; Geographical Information Systems modelling; and multicriteria analyses of stakeholders' views using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. For case study analyses, the City of the Gold Coast located in Southeast Queensland, Australia has been selected. The results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that, at the end of a 100 year simulation period, approximately 6% of the landscape in the study area will be gradually inundated over time, with 0.5 cm rise per year. However, the percentage of the vulnerable area leapt to about 34% for Scenario 2, and 56% for Scenario 3, which represent 1 cm and 1.5 cm rise per year. Using the information obtained from vulnerability assessments, three stakeholder groups (Politicians, Experts and Residents) were consulted to determine the goal, criteria and adaptation alternatives for the multicriteria analyses. Analyses of survey data reveal that across the three stakeholder groups, Effectiveness and Sustainability are the criteria of highest priority. |
Keywords | Decision making; Dynamic modelling; Sea level rise; Vulnerability; Adaptation |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 330202. Building construction management and project planning |
Public Notes | The accessible file is the accepted version of the paper. Please refer to the URL for the published version. |
Byline Affiliations | Griffith University |
South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative, Australia |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/w13yx/a-spatial-temporal-decision-framework-for-adaptation-to-sea-level-rise
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