Analysis of effects of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in Bangladesh using VAR and Granger causality approach
Article
Article Title | Analysis of effects of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in Bangladesh using VAR and Granger causality approach |
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ERA Journal ID | 200526 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Hossain, Md. Jamal, Sultana, , Nazia, Das, Anwesha, Jui, Fariea Nazim, Islam, Md. Kamru, Rahman, Md. Mijanoor and Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur |
Journal Title | Frontiers in Public Health |
Journal Citation | 12 |
Article Number | 1488742 |
Number of Pages | 10 |
Year | 2024 |
Publisher | Frontiers Media SA |
Place of Publication | Switzerland |
ISSN | 2296-2565 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1488742 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1488742/full |
Abstract | Background: Dengue fever is a serious public health issue in Bangladesh, where its incidence rises with the monsoon. Meteorological variables are believed to be responsible factors among others. Therefore, this study examines the effects of meteorological variables (temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. While previous studies have examined the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables using single model approaches, this study employs advanced econometric techniques to capture dynamic interactions. Furthermore, in the case of Bangladesh, this type of analysis is necessary due to the fact that dengue outbreak become one of the major issues. However, the analysis related to this issue is not available. Methods: For estimation purposes, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VDC), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are employed. Results: Rainfall has a significant impact on dengue incidence compared to temperature and humidity. The Granger causality test demonstrates that rainfall and dengue incidence are causally related unidirectionally. Rainfall can potentially have a short-term and long-term effect on the incidence of dengue, as per the estimates of the VECM model. Conclusions: These findings will assist policymakers in Bangladesh in developing a dengue fever early warning system depending on climate change. In order to efficiently avoid the spread of dengue in Bangladesh's dengue-endemic urban areas, this study suggests societal monitoring. |
Keywords | DS VAR model; impulse response function; dengue fever; meteorological variables; VECM model; Granger causality |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 380108. Health economics |
380205. Time-series analysis | |
Byline Affiliations | Noakhali Science and Technology University, Bangladesh |
Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Bangladesh | |
School of Business |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/zqv15/analysis-of-effects-of-meteorological-variables-on-dengue-incidence-in-bangladesh-using-var-and-granger-causality-approach
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