Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

Article


Tolentino, Pamela Louise M., Poortinga, Ate, Kanamaru, Hideki, Keesstra, Saskia, Maroulis, Jerry, David, Carlos Primo C. and Ritsema, Coen J.. 2016. "Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines." PLoS One. 11 (10), pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941
Article Title

Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

ERA Journal ID39745
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsTolentino, Pamela Louise M. (Author), Poortinga, Ate (Author), Kanamaru, Hideki (Author), Keesstra, Saskia (Author), Maroulis, Jerry (Author), David, Carlos Primo C. (Author) and Ritsema, Coen J. (Author)
Journal TitlePLoS One
Journal Citation11 (10), pp. 1-14
Number of Pages14
Year2016
PublisherPublic Library of Science (PLoS)
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN1932-6203
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941
Web Address (URL)https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0163941
Abstract

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural
provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river
flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century).
Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows
and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase
in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.

Keywordsclimate change; hydrological schemes; Philippines
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
410402. Environmental assessment and monitoring
410404. Environmental management
400513. Water resources engineering
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of the Philippines
Wageningen University, Netherlands
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Italy
International Centre for Applied Climate Science
Wageningen University, Netherlands
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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