Indeed association does not equal prediction: the never-ending search for the perfect acute: chronic workload ratio

Indeed association does not equal prediction: the never-ending search for the perfect acute: chronic workload ratio

We recently demonstrated associations between workload and injury.1 2 Regrettably, in these manuscripts, we used the words ‘predict’ and ‘predictive’ within the titles. Although we clearly used more appropriate language throughout these manuscripts, the titles of our work have resulted in a misconception that we believe the acute:chronic workload ratio can predict injury with some certainty.3 4 Our purpose for investigating workload–injury relationships in these studies was to identify workloads that practitioners could use (along with other information) to make informed decisions in regards to when injury risk may be increased or decreased—it was not our intention to imply that one variable could predict injury with crystal ball-like accuracy. We discussed at length that other variables will undoubtedly also have associations with injury,1 2 and that good athlete monitoring involves consideration of factors in addition to workload.5 However, we feel that these views may have been dismissed and, consequently, our purpose here is to provide novel perspectives and some clarity and context on the practical applications of the acute:chronic workload ratio.

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