Developing crash modification factors for roundabouts using a cross-sectional method

Article


Al-Marafi, Mohammad Nour, Somasundaraswaran, Kathirgamalingam and Ayers, Ron. 2020. "Developing crash modification factors for roundabouts using a cross-sectional method." Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering. 7 (3), pp. 362-374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtte.2018.10.012
Article Title

Developing crash modification factors for roundabouts using a cross-sectional method

ERA Journal ID211021
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsAl-Marafi, Mohammad Nour (Author), Somasundaraswaran, Kathirgamalingam (Author) and Ayers, Ron (Author)
Journal TitleJournal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
Journal Citation7 (3), pp. 362-374
Year2020
Place of PublicationChina
ISSN2095-7564
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtte.2018.10.012
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095756418302708
Abstract

The objective of the current study was to evaluate traffic and geometric features and their influences on the safety performance of roundabouts by developing suitable crash modification factors (CMFs). The cross-sectional method can be applied as an alternative method to estimate the CMFs when before-and-after studies are impractical to apply, e.g., lack of data from the period after implementing treatments. To accomplish the study objective, CMFs were derived from generalised linear models (GLMs), i.e., negative binomial (NB) regression, using data collected on regional roundabouts in Toowoomba City, Australia. Six years of crash data from 49 roundabouts included all recorded crashes as well as traffic and geometric features for the entire roundabouts. Several candidate models were developed using the GLMs. Five models were selected based on statistical significance, goodness-of-fit (GOF) measures, and cumulative residual (CURE) analysis. The results show that increasing the number of entry lanes, entry width, entry radius, traffic volume, circulatory roadway width, weaving width, and speed limit have positive effects on roundabout safety. On the other hand, increasing the number of legs, number of exit lanes, exit width, exit radius, weaving length, central island diameters, and presence of fixed object on a central island have negative effects on roundabout safety. The study shows that quantifying the risk factors can support road safety stakeholders to identify safety improvements at roundabouts more effectively and efficiently.

KeywordsSafety performance; Generalised linear models; Crash modification factors; Cross-sectional method; Roundabouts
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020400512. Transport engineering
Byline AffiliationsSchool of Civil Engineering and Surveying
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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