Diagnostic information produces better-calibrated judgments about forensic comparison evidence than likelihood ratios

Article

Ribeiro, Gianni, McKimmie, Blake Malcolm and Tangen, Jason Marcus. 2023. "Diagnostic information produces better-calibrated judgments about forensic comparison evidence than likelihood ratios." Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 12 (3), pp. 412-420. https://doi.org/10.1037/mac0000062
Article Title

Diagnostic information produces better-calibrated judgments about forensic comparison evidence than likelihood ratios

ERA Journal ID200902
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsRibeiro, Gianni, McKimmie, Blake Malcolm and Tangen, Jason Marcus
Journal TitleJournal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition
Journal Citation12 (3), pp. 412-420
Number of Pages9
Year2023
PublisherAmerican Psychological Association
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN2211-3681
2211-369X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1037/mac0000062
Web Address (URL)https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fmac0000062
Abstract

Forensic expert testimony is slowly starting to reflect the uncertain nature of forensic science, but the way experts should express the uncertainty of their decisions is under debate. Here, we compare the likelihood model approach to a diagnostic approach—which provides information about performance and error rates—to determine which produces a more calibrated understanding and evaluation of the evidence. In Experiment 1 (N = 738), participants were more sensitive to differences in evidence strength when the evidence was expressed as diagnostic information than as a likelihood ratio, as predicted. In Experiment 2 (N = 499), however, when provided with both diagnostic information and a likelihood ratio, participants tended to discount the presence of the likelihood ratio in favor of the diagnostic information, which we did not predict. Together, these results suggest that providing fact-finders with diagnostic information might aid their understanding and evaluation of forensic evidence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Keywordsforensic evidence; likelihood ratio; expert testimony; juror decision-making
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020520402. Decision making
5201. Applied and developmental psychology
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Queensland
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