An economic assessment of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal economy
Poster
Paper/Presentation Title | An economic assessment of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal economy |
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Presentation Type | Poster |
Authors | George, Gavin (Author), Gow, Jeff (Author), Thurlow, James (Author) and Quinlan, Tim (Author) |
Year | 2008 |
Conference/Event | 17th International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2008): Universal Action Now |
Event Details | 17th International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2008): Universal Action Now Event Date 03 to end of 08 Aug 2008 Event Location Mexico City, Mexico |
Abstract | This study examined the impact of HIV/AIDS on the provincial economy of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. Drawing on a new survey of HIV prevalence amongst workers in KZN firms, the authors developed a population/demographic model to capture the effects of AIDS on workers across different occupations. The results from the population/demographic model were then linked to a CGE-microsimulation model. The results from this economic model indicate a significant decline in both GDP and per capita GDP as a result of HIV/AIDS. By 2025, the KZN economy will be 43% smaller than it could have been were it not for HIV/AIDS. Similarly, the rest of the country's economy will be 37% smaller by 2025. The results also indicate that while the detrimental growth-effect is large, the impact of HIV/AIDS on regional poverty headcounts is relatively small and that inequality would be higher in the absence of HIV/AIDS. In fact, the absolute number of poor people in KZN would be higher by 662,000 people in 2025. However, the population/demographic model also predicts that 11.8 million people will die of HIV/AIDS in South Africa during 2002-2025; of these over 3 million will be in KZN. Furthermore, the incentive to mitigate the effects of HIV/AIDS lies not only with poorer households and those with infected members, but also with the uninfected and higher-income households, who stand to benefit from faster economic growth and rising incomes. |
Keywords | South Africa; GDP; worker health; economic impact |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 380111. Labour economics |
440499. Development studies not elsewhere classified | |
440304. Mortality | |
Public Notes | Poster no: MOPE0636 |
Byline Affiliations | University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa |
International Food Policy Research Institute, United States |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/9zz43/an-economic-assessment-of-the-impact-of-hiv-aids-on-the-kwazulu-natal-economy
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