Terrorists' equilibrium choices when no attack method is riskless

Article

Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "Terrorists' equilibrium choices when no attack method is riskless." Atlantic Economic Journal. 39 (2), pp. 129-141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
Article Title

Terrorists' equilibrium choices when no attack method is riskless

ERA Journal ID18188
Article CategoryArticle
Authors
AuthorPhillips, Peter J.
Journal TitleAtlantic Economic Journal
Journal Citation39 (2), pp. 129-141
Number of Pages13
Year2011
Place of PublicationNew York, NY. USA
ISSN0197-4254
1573-9678
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
Web Address (URL)http://www.springerlink.com/content/b4m322240300j142/fulltext.pdf
Abstract

This paper builds on Phillips (Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 403–414, 2009) and enhances the NM expected utility analysis of terroristic behaviour by drawing on the fact that expected utility maximising behaviour in a setting where a terroristic group makes optimal decisions from a choice set containing combinations of attack methods can be analysed in terms of two moments (mean and variance) of the random payoffs associated with each attack method combination. This paper presents an equilibrium relationship between the expected payoffs of attack method combinations and the risk associated with those payoffs. This is an equilibrium model of choice under uncertainty when the behaviour of interest is the selection by a terroristic group of an optimal decision from a choice set containing attack method combinations.

Keywordsexpected utility; terrorism; mean-variance; equilibrium
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020520402. Decision making
500303. Decision theory
380304. Microeconomic theory
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsSchool of Accounting, Economics and Finance
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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