The Hidden Logic of Disinformation and the Prioritization of Alternatives

Article

Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "The Hidden Logic of Disinformation and the Prioritization of Alternatives." Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations. 22 (1), pp. 24-34.
Article Title

The Hidden Logic of Disinformation and the Prioritization of Alternatives

Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPhillips, Peter J. (Author) and Pohl, Gabriela (Author)
Journal TitleSeton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Journal Citation22 (1), pp. 24-34
Number of Pages11
Year2021
PublisherSeton Hall University
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN1538-6589
Web Address (URL)https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/whith22&i=24
Abstract

Both orthodox and behavioural decision theory are concerned with the prioritisation of alternative risky prospects. We are concerned with how this ranking or prioritisation process is impacted by disinformation. This might interest those who support the use of decision theory in international relations. In fact, international relations scholars were among the first to apply prospect theory, a key theoretical framework of behavioural economics, to the analysis of situations falling outside of the usual types of risky choices that interested economists. In this paper, we explain how decision theory may be used to analyse the ways in which disinformation—an old but perennial problem—may influence the decisions of individuals and groups working under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Those proponents of prospect theory’s use in political science and international relations may find it possible to incorporate part of this explanation into their analysis. It is, of course, a matter for individual scholars to determine the degree of significance accorded to the impact of micro-foundations on the direction of international affairs.

KeywordsDecision Theory, International Relations, Disinformation, Decision-Making
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020380102. Behavioural economics
380304. Microeconomic theory
440804. Defence studies
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Queensland
School of Humanities and Communication
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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