Disinformation Cascades, Espionage & Counter-Intelligence

Article

Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Disinformation Cascades, Espionage & Counter-Intelligence." The International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs. 23 (1), pp. 34-47. https://doi.org/10.1080/23800992.2020.1834311
Article Title

Disinformation Cascades, Espionage & Counter-Intelligence

ERA Journal ID214294
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPhillips, Peter J. (Author) and Pohl, Gabriela (Author)
Journal TitleThe International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs
Journal Citation23 (1), pp. 34-47
Number of Pages14
Year2021
PublisherRoutledge
Place of PublicationLondon, United kingdom
ISSN2380-0992
2380-100X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/23800992.2020.1834311
Web Address (URL)https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23800992.2020.1834311
Abstract

Information cascades occur when decision-makers beyond some point in a decision-making sequence find that it is optimal to follow the decision that others have taken even if their own private information indicates a contrary course of action. Information cascades are studied because they can help us to explain decision-making conformity and behavior convergence, including fads and fashions. Cascades can be correct or incorrect, strong or fragile. The intelligence community has often been concerned with deception and disinformation. We call an incorrect information cascade precipitated by deception a ‘disinformation cascade.’ How easily can a disinformation cascade be started? How many intelligence officers must choose a certain way before a disinformation cascade starts? These are the questions we address in this paper.

Keywordsdisinformation, information cascades, intelligence agencies, decision theory
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020520402. Decision making
440808. International relations
440804. Defence studies
380304. Microeconomic theory
Byline AffiliationsSchool of Commerce
School of Humanities and Communication
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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