Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

Article

Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2017. "Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis." Defence and Peace Economics. 28 (2), pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
Article Title

Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

ERA Journal ID30484
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPhillips, Peter J. (Author) and Pohl, Gabriela (Author)
Journal TitleDefence and Peace Economics
Journal Citation28 (2), pp. 150-164
Number of Pages15
Year2017
Place of PublicationLondon, United Kingdom
ISSN1024-2694
1476-8267
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
Abstract

The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory. We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. Prospect theory orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of 'trigger points' and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method.

Keywordsterrorist choice; prospect theory; stochastic dominance; attack methods; trigger points; fatalities
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020490510. Stochastic analysis and modelling
440804. Defence studies
380304. Microeconomic theory
Public Notes

© 2017 Taylor & Francis. Accepted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Permanent restricted access to Published version due to publisher copyright policy.

Byline AffiliationsSchool of Commerce
School of Arts and Communication
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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