Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

Article

Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2017. "Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis." Defence and Peace Economics. 28 (2), pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
Article Title

Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

ERA Journal ID30484
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPhillips, Peter J. (Author) and Pohl, Gabriela (Author)
Journal TitleDefence and Peace Economics
Journal Citation28 (2), pp. 150-164
Number of Pages15
Year2017
Place of PublicationLondon, United Kingdom
ISSN1024-2694
1476-8267
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
Abstract

The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory. We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. Prospect theory orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of 'trigger points' and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method.

Keywordsterrorist choice; prospect theory; stochastic dominance; attack methods; trigger points; fatalities
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020490510. Stochastic analysis and modelling
440804. Defence studies
380304. Microeconomic theory
Public Notes

© 2017 Taylor & Francis. Accepted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Permanent restricted access to Published version due to publisher copyright policy.

Byline AffiliationsSchool of Commerce
School of Arts and Communication
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q2z44/terrorist-choice-a-stochastic-dominance-and-prospect-theory-analysis

Log in to edit

Download files

Accepted Version
Terrorist Choice Stochastic Dominance and Prospect Theory DEF.pdf
File access level: Anyone

  • 1798
    total views
  • 291
    total downloads
  • 1
    views this month
  • 3
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Information, Uncertainty & Espionage
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2024. "Information, Uncertainty & Espionage." The Review of Austrian Economics. 37 (1), pp. 35-54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-022-00587-8
The Hidden Logic of Disinformation and the Prioritization of Alternatives
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "The Hidden Logic of Disinformation and the Prioritization of Alternatives." Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations. 22 (1), pp. 24-34.
Speaking of terrorist behaviour
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2022. "Speaking of terrorist behaviour." Crime, Law and Social Change: an interdisciplinary journal. 77 (5), pp. 555-576. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-021-10010-1
Algorithms, human decision-making and predictive policing
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Algorithms, human decision-making and predictive policing." SN Social Sciences. 1 (5), pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-021-00109-6
Behavioural Economics and Terrorism: Law Enforcement and Patterns of Behaviour
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. Behavioural Economics and Terrorism: Law Enforcement and Patterns of Behaviour. New York. Routledge.
Countering Intelligence Algorithms: Decision Theory, Design Choices and Counter-AI
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Countering Intelligence Algorithms: Decision Theory, Design Choices and Counter-AI." RUSI Journal. 165 (7), pp. 22-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2021.1893126
Crowd counting: a behavioural economics perspective
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Crowd counting: a behavioural economics perspective." Quality and Quantity: international journal of methodology. 55 (6), pp. 2253-2270. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01117-7
Disinformation Cascades, Espionage & Counter-Intelligence
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Disinformation Cascades, Espionage & Counter-Intelligence." The International Journal of Intelligence, Security, and Public Affairs. 23 (1), pp. 34-47. https://doi.org/10.1080/23800992.2020.1834311
FinTech, terrorism-related fund transfers and behavioural finance
Phillips, Peter J. and McDermid, Benjamin. 2021. "FinTech, terrorism-related fund transfers and behavioural finance." Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: pathways toward terrorism and genocide. 14 (3), pp. 226-246. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2020.1821074
Tinker, Thaler, Soldier, Spy: Behavioral Economics of HUMINT Transactions and Source Prioritizations
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Tinker, Thaler, Soldier, Spy: Behavioral Economics of HUMINT Transactions and Source Prioritizations." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence. 34 (1), pp. 17-44. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2020.1747830
Space junk: Behavioural economics and the prioritisation of solutions
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2021. "Space junk: Behavioural economics and the prioritisation of solutions." Defence and Peace Economics. 32 (8), pp. 956-971. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1772552
Anticipated regret, terrorist behaviour & the presentation of the outcomes of attacks in the mainstream media and in terrorist group publications
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2020. "Anticipated regret, terrorist behaviour & the presentation of the outcomes of attacks in the mainstream media and in terrorist group publications." Aggression and Violent Behavior. 51, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2020.101394
Financial institutions, instruments and markets
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2019. Financial institutions, instruments and markets. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia.
How terrorism red flags become weak signals through the processes of judgement and evaluation
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2020. "How terrorism red flags become weak signals through the processes of judgement and evaluation." Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology. 35 (3), pp. 377-388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-019-09345-2
Terrorism, lightning and falling furniture
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2020. "Terrorism, lightning and falling furniture." Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression. 12 (2), pp. 140-156. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2019.1595697
Who wants to talk to terrorists?
Phillips, Peter J.. 2019. "Who wants to talk to terrorists?" Yu, Fu-Lai Tony and Kwan, Diana S. (ed.) Contemporary issues in international political economy. Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 91-110
The deferral of attacks: SP/A theory as a model of terrorist choice when losses are inevitable
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2018. "The deferral of attacks: SP/A theory as a model of terrorist choice when losses are inevitable." Open Economics. 1 (1), pp. 71-85. https://doi.org/10.1515/openec-2018-0001
Terrorist choice and the media
Pohl, Gabriela. 2017. Terrorist choice and the media. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland. https://doi.org/10.26192/5c0608ca8a829
Terrorism watch lists, suspect ranking and decision-making biases
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2019. "Terrorism watch lists, suspect ranking and decision-making biases." Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. 42 (10), pp. 898-914. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2018.1432046
Financial institutions, instruments & markets
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. Financial institutions, instruments & markets. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia.
Crime scene investigation: investigative economics & the drawing of inferences about unknown offenders, Revised edition
Phillips, Peter J.. 2016. Crime scene investigation: investigative economics & the drawing of inferences about unknown offenders, Revised edition. Amsterdam, Netherlands. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2127447
The economics of terrorism
Phillips, Peter J.. 2016. The economics of terrorism. Abingdon, Oxon & New York, New York. Routledge.
Cross-cultural pragmatic failure and implications for language teaching
Pohl, Gabriela. 2004. "Cross-cultural pragmatic failure and implications for language teaching." Second Language Learning and Teaching. 4.
Financial institutions, instruments and markets
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2015. Financial institutions, instruments and markets. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia.
Prospect theory and geographic profiling: the terrorist's choice of target
Phillips, Peter J.. 2015. Prospect theory and geographic profiling: the terrorist's choice of target. Unpublished.
Media and terrorist choice: a risk-reward analysis
Pohl, Gabriela. 2015. "Media and terrorist choice: a risk-reward analysis." Journal of Applied Security Research. 10 (1), pp. 60-76. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2015.972271
Geographic profiling of lone wolf terrorists: the application of economics, game theory and prospect theory
Phillips, Peter J.. 2014. "Geographic profiling of lone wolf terrorists: the application of economics, game theory and prospect theory." Workshop on Strategic Aspects of Terrorism, Security, and Espionage (2014). Stony Brook, United States 16 - 19 Jul 2014
Prospect theory and terrorist choice
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2014. "Prospect theory and terrorist choice." Journal of Applied Economics. 17 (1), pp. 139-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(14)60006-4
The economic analysis of lone wolf terrorism
Phillips, Peter. 2014. "The economic analysis of lone wolf terrorism." Caruso, Raul and Locatelli, Andrea (ed.) Understanding terrorism: a socio-economic perspective. Bingley, United Kingdom. Emerald. pp. 159-191
How to fight terrorism: the relevance of qualitative economics
Phillips, Peter J.. 2013. "How to fight terrorism: the relevance of qualitative economics." Applied Economics Quarterly. 59 (3), pp. 197-207. https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.59.3.197
Does negotiating with terrorists make them more risk seeking?
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2013. "Does negotiating with terrorists make them more risk seeking?" Journal of Politics and Law. 6 (4), pp. 108-120. https://doi.org/10.5539/jpl.v6n4p108
In pursuit of the lone wolf terrorist: investigative economics and new horizons for the economic analysis of terrorism
Phillips, Peter J.. 2013. In pursuit of the lone wolf terrorist: investigative economics and new horizons for the economic analysis of terrorism. New York, NY. United States. Nova Science Publishers.
The end of Al-qa´ida: rationality, survivability and risk aversion
Phillips, Peter J.. 2013. "The end of Al-qa´ida: rationality, survivability and risk aversion." International Journal of Economic Sciences. 2 (1), pp. 61-81.
The lone wolf terrorist: sprees of violence
Phillips, Peter J.. 2012. "The lone wolf terrorist: sprees of violence." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy. 18 (3), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2012-0010
Dynamic and interactive teaching with technology
Phillips, Peter J. and Loch, Birgit I.. 2012. "Dynamic and interactive teaching with technology." Journal of Financial Education. 38 (3/4), pp. 46-68.
Lone wolf terrorism and sprees of violence
Phillips, Peter J.. 2012. "Lone wolf terrorism and sprees of violence." Bove, Vincenzo and Ruggeri, Andrea (ed.) 12th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference (PEPS 2012). Berlin, Germany 25 - 27 Jun 2012
Interest rate swaps, cross-currency swaps and credit default swaps
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "Interest rate swaps, cross-currency swaps and credit default swaps." Financial institutions, instruments & markets, 7th ed.. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 683-709
Options
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "Options." Financial institutions, instruments & markets. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 644-682
Futures contracts and forward rate agreements
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "Futures contracts and forward rate agreements." Financial institutions, instruments & markets, 7th ed.. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 612-643
An introduction to risk management and derivatives
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "An introduction to risk management and derivatives." Financial institutions, instruments & markets, 7th ed.. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 582-611
Government debt, monetary policy and the payments system
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "Government debt, monetary policy and the payments system." Financial institutions, instruments & markets.. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 394-425
Non-bank financial institutions
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "Non-bank financial institutions." Financial institutions, instruments & markets.. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 93-134
Commercial banks
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "Commercial banks." Financial institutions, instruments & markets. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 44-92
A modern financial system: an overview
Viney, Christopher and Phillips, Peter. 2012. "A modern financial system: an overview." Financial institutions, instruments & markets. Sydney, Australia. McGraw-Hill Australia. pp. 4-43
Switching costs, grassroots support of terrorism and the escalation of conflict
Phillips, Peter J.. 2012. "Switching costs, grassroots support of terrorism and the escalation of conflict." The European Journal of Social Sciences. 31 (2), pp. 148-159.
Economic profiling of the lone wolf terrorist: can economics provide behavioral investigative advice?
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2012. "Economic profiling of the lone wolf terrorist: can economics provide behavioral investigative advice?" Journal of Applied Security Research. 7 (2), pp. 151-177. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2012.656250
The diseconomies of terrorism
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "The diseconomies of terrorism." World Economics: the journal of current economic analysis and policy. 12 (4), pp. 171-192.
Weathering the storm - financial climate change
Phillips, Peter J.. 2008. "Weathering the storm - financial climate change." Brisbane Business News. 4.01.
Terrorism, identity, psychology and defence economics
Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2011. "Terrorism, identity, psychology and defence economics." International Research Journal of Finance and Economics.
The life cycle of terrorist organisations
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "The life cycle of terrorist organisations." International Advances in Economic Research. 17 (4), pp. 369-385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-011-9314-3
Building lectures and building bridges with socio-economically disadvantaged students
Phillips, Peter J. and Loch, Birgit. 2011. "Building lectures and building bridges with socio-economically disadvantaged students." Educational Technology and Society. 14 (3), pp. 240-251.
Terrorist network infiltration, asymmetric information, and quality uncertainty
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "Terrorist network infiltration, asymmetric information, and quality uncertainty." Journal of Applied Security Research. 6 (3), pp. 339-356. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2011.580263
Sin stocks in self managed superannuation funds
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "Sin stocks in self managed superannuation funds." Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal. 5 (2), pp. 39-51.
The lone wolf suicide terrorist: a preliminary application of mean-variance methods
Phillips, Peter J.. 2010. "The lone wolf suicide terrorist: a preliminary application of mean-variance methods." Applied Economics Research Bulletin. 8 (4), pp. 1-9.
Will self-managed superannuation fund investors survive?
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "Will self-managed superannuation fund investors survive?" The Australian Economic Review. 44 (1), pp. 51-63. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2010.00618.x
Lone wolf terrorism
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "Lone wolf terrorism." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy. 17 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.2202/1554-8597.1207
Terrorists' equilibrium choices when no attack method is riskless
Phillips, Peter J.. 2011. "Terrorists' equilibrium choices when no attack method is riskless." Atlantic Economic Journal. 39 (2), pp. 129-141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-010-9253-z
The randomization of terrorist attacks
Phillips, Peter J.. 2010. "The randomization of terrorist attacks." Defense and Security Analysis. 26 (3), pp. 261-272. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2010.516542
The preferred risk habitat of al-Qaeida terrorists
Phillips, Peter J.. 2010. "The preferred risk habitat of al-Qaeida terrorists." The European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences.
The technostructure gap: the educational qualifications of executive and non-executive directors
Phillips, Peter J. and Cotter, Julie. 2010. "The technostructure gap: the educational qualifications of executive and non-executive directors." Corporate Ownership and Control. 7 (4), pp. 102-113.
Financial crisis of metaphor
Phillips, Peter J.. 2010. "Financial crisis of metaphor." The Review of Austrian Economics. 23 (3), pp. 223-242. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-010-0104-6
Are larger self managed superannuation funds riskier?
Phillips, Peter J.. 2009. "Are larger self managed superannuation funds riskier?" Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting. 1 (1), pp. 54-75.
Are benchmark asset allocations for Australian private investors optimal?
Santacruz, Lujer and Phillips, Peter J.. 2009. "Are benchmark asset allocations for Australian private investors optimal?" The Journal of Wealth Management. 12 (2), pp. 60-70. https://doi.org/10.3905/JWM.2009.12.2.060
Can self-managed superannuation fund trustees earn the equity risk premium?
Phillips, Peter J., Baczynski, Michael P. and Teale, John. 2009. "Can self-managed superannuation fund trustees earn the equity risk premium?" Accounting Research Journal. 22 (1), pp. 27-45. https://doi.org/10.1108/10309610910975315
Applying modern portfolio theory to the analysis of terrorism: computing the set of attack method combinations from which the rational terrorist group will choose in order to maximise injuries and fatalities
Phillips, Peter J.. 2009. "Applying modern portfolio theory to the analysis of terrorism: computing the set of attack method combinations from which the rational terrorist group will choose in order to maximise injuries and fatalities." Defence and Peace Economics. 20 (3), pp. 193-213. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690801923124
Self managed superannuation funds and the bear market of 2007-2008
Phillips, Peter J., Baczynski, Michael P. and Teale, John. 2009. "Self managed superannuation funds and the bear market of 2007-2008." Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal. 3 (1), pp. 38-56.
A study of the diffusion of asset prices: the determinants of asset price diffusion and a practical model of asset price diffusion for use in portfolio management
Phillips, Peter J.. 2009. A study of the diffusion of asset prices: the determinants of asset price diffusion and a practical model of asset price diffusion for use in portfolio management. Unpublished.
Self managed superannuation funds: theory and practice
Phillips, Peter J.. 2007. "Self managed superannuation funds: theory and practice." Journal of Law and Financial Management. 6 (1), pp. 8-22.
Mathematics, metaphor and economic visualisability
Phillips, Peter J.. 2007. "Mathematics, metaphor and economic visualisability." The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. 10 (4), pp. 281-299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12113-007-9024-0
The diversification and performance of self managed superannuation funds
Phillips, Peter J., Cathcart, Alex and Teale, John. 2007. "The diversification and performance of self managed superannuation funds." The Australian Economic Review. 40 (4), pp. 339-352. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2007.00475.x
Optimality of financial planning clients' strategic asset allocation
Santacruz, Lujer and Phillips, Peter J.. 2007. "Optimality of financial planning clients' strategic asset allocation." Moshirian, Fariborz (ed.) 20th Annual Australasian Finance and Banking Conference (AFBC 2007). Sydney, Australia 12 - 14 Dec 2007 Sydney, Australia.
The 'price' of terrorism
Phillips, Peter J.. 2005. "The 'price' of terrorism." Defence and Peace Economics. 16 (6), pp. 403-414. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500115931
Why do we invest ethically?
Beal, Diana, Goyen, Michelle and Phillips, Peter J.. 2005. "Why do we invest ethically?" The Journal of Investing. 14 (3), pp. 66-77.