Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis
Article
Article Title | Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis |
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ERA Journal ID | 30484 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Phillips, Peter J. (Author) and Pohl, Gabriela (Author) |
Journal Title | Defence and Peace Economics |
Journal Citation | 28 (2), pp. 150-164 |
Number of Pages | 15 |
Year | 2017 |
Place of Publication | London, United Kingdom |
ISSN | 1024-2694 |
1476-8267 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888 |
Abstract | The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory. We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. Prospect theory orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of 'trigger points' and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method. |
Keywords | terrorist choice; prospect theory; stochastic dominance; attack methods; trigger points; fatalities |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 490510. Stochastic analysis and modelling |
440804. Defence studies | |
380304. Microeconomic theory | |
Public Notes | © 2017 Taylor & Francis. Accepted version deposited in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Permanent restricted access to Published version due to publisher copyright policy. |
Byline Affiliations | School of Commerce |
School of Arts and Communication | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q2z44/terrorist-choice-a-stochastic-dominance-and-prospect-theory-analysis
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