How terrorism red flags become weak signals through the processes of judgement and evaluation

Article


Phillips, Peter J. and Pohl, Gabriela. 2020. "How terrorism red flags become weak signals through the processes of judgement and evaluation." Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology. 35 (3), pp. 377-388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-019-09345-2
Article Title

How terrorism red flags become weak signals through the processes of judgement and evaluation

ERA Journal ID36296
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPhillips, Peter J. (Author) and Pohl, Gabriela (Author)
Journal TitleJournal of Police and Criminal Psychology
Journal Citation35 (3), pp. 377-388
Number of Pages12
Year2020
Place of PublicationNew York, United States
ISSN0882-0783
1936-6469
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-019-09345-2
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11896-019-09345-2
Abstract

This paper addresses the question of why, in spite of their characteristics as ‘strong signals’, terrorism red flags can sometimes be missed. This represents a serious problem for counter-terrorism. By analysing the two phases of the investigative decision-making process, judgement and evaluation, we explain how the decision-making process can introduce distortions that can weaken even the strongest signals, making them vulnerable to being missed. We first examine the concept of weak signals and the challenges involved in detecting them. Then, drawing on the theoretical and empirical research in decision theory, we explain the role of the decision-making process in weakening and distorting strong signals. We present a model of the decision-making process based on prospect theory representing missed red flags as judgement and evaluation errors. We argue that the two phases of the decision-making process cause distortions in information, evidence, data and signals that are relevant to assessing an individual’s likely engagement in terrorism. We end the paper with some recommendations that can be implemented to mitigate the problems identified in the paper.

Keywordsweak signals, strong signals, red flags, terrorism, judgement, evaluation
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020520402. Decision making
440804. Defence studies
380304. Microeconomic theory
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Byline AffiliationsSchool of Commerce
School of Humanities and Communication
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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