Prospect theory and geographic profiling: the terrorist's choice of target

Working paper

Phillips, Peter J.. 2015. Prospect theory and geographic profiling: the terrorist's choice of target. Unpublished.
Title

Prospect theory and geographic profiling: the terrorist's choice of target

Report TypeWorking paper
Authors
AuthorPhillips, Peter J.
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Number of Pages13
Year2015
PublisherUnpublished
Abstract

This paper explores the implications of prospect theory for the geographic profiling of offenders. Prospect theory identifies several behavioural biases that are relevant to the offender’s choice of target and movements in geographic space. It is possible that concepts such as the reference point, diminishing sensitivity, loss aversion and risk aversion (seeking) in the domain of gains (losses) may contribute to the solution of relevant geographic profiling problems. The paper concentrates its analysis on terrorism and terrorist behaviour but the main results are able to be extended to some other types of serial crime. Perhaps the most interesting implication of the analysis is that the offender may drift away from the location where he was ‘successful’ but remain fixated on a location where he ‘failed’. This result, which seems counter-intuitive at first, emerges directly from a consideration of the implications of prospect theory for offender choice in geographic space and in particular the implication that gains produce risk aversion while losses produce risk seeking behaviour.

Keywordsterrorism, terrorist, serial crime, risk aversion, risk seeking, geographic profiling, prospect theory, loss aversion, reference point
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020440211. Police administration, procedures and practice
380199. Applied economics not elsewhere classified
440804. Defence studies
380304. Microeconomic theory
Public Notes

Unpublished working paper.

Byline AffiliationsSchool of Accounting, Economics and Finance
Journal TitleUnpublished Manuscript
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