Re-examining asymmetric dynamics in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: empirical evidence from Malaysia

Article

Mohnot, Rajesh, Banerjee, Arindam, Ballaj, Hanane and Sarker, Tapan. 2024. "Re-examining asymmetric dynamics in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: empirical evidence from Malaysia." The Journal of Risk Finance. 25 (1). https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-09-2023-0216
Article Title

Re-examining asymmetric dynamics in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: empirical evidence from Malaysia

ERA Journal ID19622
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsMohnot, Rajesh, Banerjee, Arindam, Ballaj, Hanane and Sarker, Tapan
Journal TitleThe Journal of Risk Finance
Journal Citation25 (1)
Number of Pages16
Year2024
PublisherEmerald
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN1526-5943
2331-2947
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-09-2023-0216
Web Address (URL)https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JRF-09-2023-0216/full/html
Abstract

Purpose
The aim of this research is to re-examine the dynamic linkages between macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices in Malaysia following some transformational changes in the policies and the exchange rate regime.

Design/methodology/approach
Using monthly data points for all the economic variables and the stock market index (KLCI Index), the authors applied vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the relationship. The authors also used impulse response function (IRF) in order to explore the effect of one-unit shock in “X” on “Y” under the VAR environment.

Findings
The authors' study finds a significant relationship between all the macroeconomic variables and the stock market index of Malaysia. The cointegration results indicate a long-term relationship, whereas the vector autoregressive-based impulse response analysis suggests that the Malaysian stock index (KLCI) responds negatively to the money supply, inflation and producer price index (PPI). However, the authors' results indicate a positive response from the stock index to the exchange rate.

Research limitations/implications
The authors' study's results are based on selected macroeconomic variables and the VAR model. Researchers may find other variables and methods more useful and may provide findings accordingly.

Practical implications
Since the results are quite asymmetric, it would be interesting for the market players, policymakers and regulators to consider the findings and explore appropriate opportunities.

Originality/value
While the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices has been widely examined, a significant gap in the literature remains concerning the role of exchange rate variable on the stock market in an emerging economy context.

KeywordsMacroeconomic variables; VAR; Cointegration; IRF; Dynamic relationship; Malaysia; Stock market; Inflation; Exchange rate; Producer price index; Money supply
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350299. Banking, finance and investment not elsewhere classified
Public Notes

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Byline AffiliationsAjman University, United Arab Emirates
S P Jain School of Global Management, Australia
University of Southern Queensland
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The business tax literacy of Australian small businesses
Belle Isle, Melissa, Freudenberg, Brett and Sarker, Tapan. 2022. "The business tax literacy of Australian small businesses." Australian Tax Forum: a journal of taxation policy, law and reform. 37 (1), pp. 65-103.
Role of the Land-Based Private Sector in Low-Emission Development: An Indonesian Case
Alviya, Iis, Sarker, Tapan, Sarvaiya, Harsha and Iftekhar, Md Sayed. 2021. "Role of the Land-Based Private Sector in Low-Emission Development: An Indonesian Case." Sustainability. 13 (24), pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132413811
Quality infrastructure and natural disaster resiliency: A panel analysis of Asia and the Pacific
Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, Sarker, Tapan, Yoshino, Naoyuki, Mortha, Aline and Vo, Xuan Vinh. 2020. "Quality infrastructure and natural disaster resiliency: A panel analysis of Asia and the Pacific." Economic Analysis and Policy. 69, pp. 394-406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.12.021
Revisiting conventional and green finance spillover in post-COVID world: Evidence from robust econometric models
Sharma, Gagan Deep, Sarker, Tapan, Rao, Amar, Talan, Gaurav and Jain, Mansi. 2022. "Revisiting conventional and green finance spillover in post-COVID world: Evidence from robust econometric models." Global Finance Journal. 51, pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100691
Neuroentrepreneurship: an integrative review and research agenda
Sharma, Gagan Deep, Paul, Justin, Srivastava, Mrinalini, Yadav, Anshita, Mendy, John, Sarker, Tapan and Bansal, Sanchita. 2021. "Neuroentrepreneurship: an integrative review and research agenda." Entrepreneurship and Regional Development. 33 (9-10), pp. 863-893. https://doi.org/10.1080/08985626.2021.1966106
Conditional acceptance of digitized business model innovation at the BoP: A stakeholder analysis of eKutir in India
Sengupta, Tuhin, Narayanamurthy, Gopalakrishnan, Hota, Pradeep Kumar, Sarker, Tapan and Dey, Subhendu. 2021. "Conditional acceptance of digitized business model innovation at the BoP: A stakeholder analysis of eKutir in India." Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 170, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120857
Renewable energy generation from livestock waste for a sustainable circular economy in Bangladesh
Islam, K. M. Nazmul, Sarker, Tapan, Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, Atri, Anashuwa Chowdhury and Alam, Mohammad Shafiul. 2021. "Renewable energy generation from livestock waste for a sustainable circular economy in Bangladesh." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 139, pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110695
Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector
Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar, Mahi, Masnun, Sarker, Tapan and Amin, Md. Ruhul. 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector." Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 14 (5), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14050200
Promoting energy efficiency financing within the G20: the role of fiscal instruments
Sarker, Tapan, Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad and Yoshino, Naoyuki. 2021. Promoting energy efficiency financing within the G20: the role of fiscal instruments. Germany. Global Solutions Initiative Foundation.
Sustainable Coastal and Maritime Tourism: A Potential Blue Economy Avenue for Bangladesh
Islam, Md Wasiul and Sarker, Tapan. 2021. Sustainable Coastal and Maritime Tourism: A Potential Blue Economy Avenue for Bangladesh. Japan. Asian Development Bank Institute.
Demographic Dividend, Digital Innovation, and Economic Growth: Bangladesh Experience
Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz and Sarker, Tapan. 2021. Demographic Dividend, Digital Innovation, and Economic Growth: Bangladesh Experience. Japan. Asian Development Bank Institute.
Supporting SMEs in Sustainable Strategy Development Post-Covid-19: Challenges and Policy Agenda for the G20
Barbagila, Martina, Buttice, Vincenzo, Giudici, Giancarlo, Mendy, John, Sarker, Tapan, Sharma, Gagan D., Thomas, Asha and Zutshi, Ambika. 2021. Supporting SMEs in Sustainable Strategy Development Post-Covid-19: Challenges and Policy Agenda for the G20. Germany. Global Solutions Initiative Foundation.
Building the business case for climate change adaptation: Lessons from Coastal Australia
Hales, Rob, Banhalmi-Zakar, Zsuzsa, Sarker, Tapan, Lo, Alex, Chai, Andreas, Whittlesea, Emma, Fleming, Chris, Kelly, Katrina and Bun, Mara. 2016. Building the business case for climate change adaptation: Lessons from Coastal Australia. Australia. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.
A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal
Chalise, Sudarshan, Naranpanawa, Athula, Bandara, Jayatilleke S. and Sarker, Tapan. 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal." Economic Modelling. 62, pp. 43-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.014
Factors Influencing the Green Bond Market Expansion: Evidence from a Multi-Dimensional Analysis
Tu, Chuc Anh, Sarker, Tapan and Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan. 2020. "Factors Influencing the Green Bond Market Expansion: Evidence from a Multi-Dimensional Analysis." Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 13 (6), pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13060126
Sustainable development and finance post-pandemic – future directions and challenges
Cadman, Timothy and Sarker, Tapan. 2022. "Sustainable development and finance post-pandemic – future directions and challenges." De Gruyter Handbook of Sustainable Development and Finance. Germany. Walter de Gruyter. pp. 653-665
Top of the Grade: Factors that could influence small business literacy
Belle Isle, Melissa, Freudenberg, Brett and Sarker, Tapan. 2022. "Top of the Grade: Factors that could influence small business literacy." Journal of Australian Taxation. 24 (1), pp. 5-34.
The role of fiscal instruments in encouraging the private sector and smallholders to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation: Evidence from Indonesia
Cadman, Tim, Sarker, Tapan, Muttaqin, Zahrul, Nurfatriani, Firti and Maraseni, Tek. 2019. "The role of fiscal instruments in encouraging the private sector and smallholders to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation: Evidence from Indonesia." Forest Policy and Economics. 108, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.04.017
Comparative evaluation of zero deforestation governance
Cadman, Tim, Maraseni, Tek, Sarker, Tapan and Ma, Hwan Ok. 2017. "Comparative evaluation of zero deforestation governance." EFTRN News. 58, pp. 161-168.
The Political economy of sustainable development: policy instruments and market mechanisms
Cadman, Tim, Eastwood, Lauren, Lopez-Casero Michaelis, Federico, Maraseni, Tek, Pittock, Jamie and Sarker, Tapan. 2015. The Political economy of sustainable development: policy instruments and market mechanisms. Cheltenham, Northampton,United Kingdom. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Resource constraints and Asia’s growth: regional cooperation for enhancing energy security
Hossain, Shanawez and Sarker, Tapan. 2013. "Resource constraints and Asia’s growth: regional cooperation for enhancing energy security." Hossain, Moazzem, Sarker, Tapan and McIntosh, Malcolm (ed.) The Asian Century, Sustainable Growth and Climate Change: Responsible Futures Matter. 9781781005743. Edward Elgar Publishing. pp. 54-81