Modelling the resilience of forage crop production to future climate change in the dairy regions of southeastern Australia using APSIM

Article

Pembleton, K. G., Cullen, B. R., Rawnsley, R. P., Harrison, M. T. and Ramilan, T.. 2016. "Modelling the resilience of forage crop production to future climate change in the dairy regions of southeastern Australia using APSIM." The Journal of Agricultural Science. 154 (7), pp. 1131-1152. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859615001185
Article Title

Modelling the resilience of forage crop production to future climate change in the dairy regions of southeastern Australia using APSIM

ERA Journal ID5187
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPembleton, K. G. (Author), Cullen, B. R. (Author), Rawnsley, R. P. (Author), Harrison, M. T. (Author) and Ramilan, T. (Author)
Journal TitleThe Journal of Agricultural Science
Journal Citation154 (7), pp. 1131-1152
Number of Pages22
Year2016
PublisherCambridge University Press
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0021-8596
1469-5146
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859615001185
Web Address (URL)https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-science/article/modelling-the-resilience-of-forage-crop-production-to-future-climate-change-in-the-dairy-regions-of-southeastern-australia-using-apsim/912D63C9C183F0228CF846D5FAE70C11
Abstract

A warmer and potentially drier future climate is likely to influence the production of forage crops on dairy farms in The southeast dairy regions of Australia. Biophysical modelling was undertaken to explore the resilience of forage production of individual forage crops to scalar increases in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and changes in daily rainfall. The model APSIM was adapted to reflect species specific responses to growth under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It was then used to simulate 40 years of production of forage wheat, oats, annual ryegrass, maize grown for silage, forage sorghum, forage rape and alfalfa grown at three locations in southeast Australia with increased temperature scenarios (1, 2, 3 and 4 °C of warming) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (435, 535, 640 and 750 ppm) and decreasing rainfall scenarios (10, 20 or 30% less rainfall). At all locations positive increases in DM yield compared with the baseline climate scenario were predicted for lucerne (2·6–93·2% increase), wheat (8·9-37·4% increase), oats (6·1–35·9% increase) and annual ryegrass (9·7–66·7% increase) under all future climate scenarios. The response of forage rape and forage sorghum varied between location and climate change scenario. At all locations, maize was predicted to have a minimal change in yield under all future climates (between a 2·6% increase and a 6·8% decrease). The future climate scenarios altered the seasonal pattern of forage supply for wheat, oats and lucerne with an increase in forage produced during winter. The resilience of forage crops to climate change indicates that they will continue to be an important component of dairy forage production in southeastern Australia.

ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Tasmania
University of Melbourne
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Smith, Rowan, Hall, Eric, Corkrey, Ross, Parsons, David, Pembleton, Keith and Rawnsley, Richard. 2015. "Summer production of alternative species in comparison to perennial ryegrass and white clover for high input pasture systems." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
Stoloniferous red clover cv. Rubitas is a valuable companion to PRG and phalaris
Watson, Brigid, Pembleton, Keith, Smith, Rowan, Corkrey, Ross and Rawnsley, Richard. 2015. "Stoloniferous red clover cv. Rubitas is a valuable companion to PRG and phalaris." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
Chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) can beat the heat during summer drought in southeast Australian dairying regions
Langworthy, Adam, Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard, Harrison, Matthew, Lane, Peter, Henry, David and Corkrey, Ross. 2015. "Chicory (Cichorium intybus L.) can beat the heat during summer drought in southeast Australian dairying regions." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
Response of the DCAD of plantain to potassium fertilisation
Pembleton, K. G, Hill, B. D. and Rawnsley, R. P.. 2015. "Response of the DCAD of plantain to potassium fertilisation." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
APSIM Kale appropriately simulates spring and autumn grown forage kale crops in Tasmania
Pembleton, K.G, Harrison, M.T., Rawnsley, R.P., Zykowski, R., Chakwizira, E., de Ruiter, J. and Johnstone, P.R.. 2015. "APSIM Kale appropriately simulates spring and autumn grown forage kale crops in Tasmania." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australlia.
Plantain and chicory could potentially complement the perennial ryegrass dominant dairy feedbase
Pembleton, K. G.. 2015. "Plantain and chicory could potentially complement the perennial ryegrass dominant dairy feedbase." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Hobart.
Comparing within paddock yield variability of perennial ryegrass monocultures and perennial ryegrass, white clover and plantain mixtures using yield mapping
McLaren, David K. and Pembleton, Keith G.. 2015. "Comparing within paddock yield variability of perennial ryegrass monocultures and perennial ryegrass, white clover and plantain mixtures using yield mapping." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
Effect of defoliation management on expression of the ‘high sugar’ cultivar trait in Tasmania
Turner, Lydia R., Donaghy, Daniel J, Pembleton, Keith G. and Rawnsley, Richard P. 2013. "Effect of defoliation management on expression of the ‘high sugar’ cultivar trait in Tasmania." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Effect of nitrogen fertiliser applications on botanical composition
Turner, Lydia R., Donaghy, Daniel J., Pembleton, Keith G. and Rawnsley, Richard P.. 2013. "Effect of nitrogen fertiliser applications on botanical composition." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Impact of grazing on the silage yield of forage oat crops
Pembleton, Keith G., Harrison, Matthew T. and Rawnsley, Richard P.. 2013. "Impact of grazing on the silage yield of forage oat crops." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Early sowing and irrigating of rape crops in cool temperate environments boosts forage yield potential
Harrison, Matthew T., Pembleton, Keith G. and Rawnsley, Richard P.. 2013. "Early sowing and irrigating of rape crops in cool temperate environments boosts forage yield potential." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Frost risk associated with growing maize for silage on Tasmanian dairy farms
Pembleton, Keith. 2012. "Frost risk associated with growing maize for silage on Tasmanian dairy farms." Rawnsley RP (ed.) 16th Australian Agronomy Conference: Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy (ASA 2012). Armidale, Australia 14 - 18 Oct 2012 Armidale, Australia.
Partitioning of taproot constituents and crown bud development are affected by water deficit in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)
Pembleton, Keith G., Volenec, Jeffrey J., Rawnsley, Richard P. and Donaghy, Daniel J.. 2010. "Partitioning of taproot constituents and crown bud development are affected by water deficit in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)." Crop Science: a journal serving the international community of crop scientists. 50 (3), pp. 989-999. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2009.03.0140
Yield, yield components and shoot morphology of four contrasting lucerne (Medicago sativa) cultivars grown in three cool temperate environments
Pembleton, K. G., Donaghy, D. J., Volenec, J. J., Smith, R. S. and Rawnsley, R. P.. 2010. "Yield, yield components and shoot morphology of four contrasting lucerne (Medicago sativa) cultivars grown in three cool temperate environments." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (6), pp. 503-511. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09351
Genotype by environment interactions of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in a cool temperate climate
Pembleton, K. G., Smith, R. S., Rawnsley, R. P., Donaghy, D. J. and Humphries, A. W.. 2010. "Genotype by environment interactions of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in a cool temperate climate." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (6), pp. 493-502. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09269
Effect of summer irrigation on seasonal changes in taproot reserves and the expression of winter dormancy/activity in four contrasting lucerne cultivars
Pembleton, K. G., Cunningham, S. M. and Volenec, J. J.. 2010. "Effect of summer irrigation on seasonal changes in taproot reserves and the expression of winter dormancy/activity in four contrasting lucerne cultivars." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (11), pp. 873 - 884. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP10030
Utilising leaf number as an indicator for defoliation to restrict stem growth in rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide
Pembleton, K.G., Lowe, K.F. and Bahnisch, L.M.. 2009. "Utilising leaf number as an indicator for defoliation to restrict stem growth in rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide." Tropical Grasslands. 43, pp. 79-85.
Water deficit alters canopy structure but not photosynthesis in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)
Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard P., Donaghy, Daniel J. and Volenec, Jeffrey J.. 2009. "Water deficit alters canopy structure but not photosynthesis in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)." Crop Science: a journal serving the international community of crop scientists. 49 (2), pp. 722-731. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2008.08.0456
Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo
Sinclair, K., Lowe, K.F. and Pembleton, K.G.. 2007. "Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo." Tropical Grasslands. 41 (4), pp. 260-268.
Potential of tropical forages for the Tasmanian dairy industry
Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard, Donaghy, Danny and Chamberlain, Peter. 2006. "Potential of tropical forages for the Tasmanian dairy industry." 13th Australian Agronomy Conference 2006. Perth, Australia 10 - 14 Sep 2006 Australia. Australian Society of Agronomy.