Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia
Article
Article Title | Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia |
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ERA Journal ID | 5177 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Pembleton, K. G. (Author), Cullen, B. R. (Author), Rawnsley, R. P. (Author) and Ramilan, T. (Author) |
Journal Title | Crop and Pasture Science |
Journal Citation | 72 (9), pp. 666-677 |
Number of Pages | 12 |
Year | 2021 |
Publisher | CSIRO Publishing |
Place of Publication | Clayton, Australia |
ISSN | 0004-9409 |
1836-0947 | |
1836-5795 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1071/CP20108 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/CP20108 |
Abstract | Increases in temperature, along with possible decreases in rainfall will influence the production of forage on Australian dairy farms. A biophysical simulation study was undertaken to compare the performance of perennial pastures and annual forage cropping systems under historical and two possible future climate scenarios for three key dairy locations of south-eastern Australia. Pastures and forage cropping systems were simulated with the biophysical models DairyMod and APSIM, respectively for a location with a heavy reliance on irrigation (Dookie, Victoria), a location with a partial reliance on irrigation (Elliott, Tasmania) and a dryland location (Terang, Victoria). The historical climate scenario (baseline scenario) had no augmentation to climate data and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 380 ppm, while the two future climate scenarios had either a 1oC increase in temperatures (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 435 ppm) and a concurrent 10% decrease in rainfall (+1/-10 scenario) or a 2oC increase in temperatures (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 535 ppm) and a concurrent 20% decrease in rainfall and (+2/-20 scenario). Mean annual dry matter (DM) yields (t DM/ha) at Dookie of the forage cropping options and the pasture systems increased under both the future climate scenarios but more irrigation was required. At Terang, the forage cropping systems increased yield while the yield of the pasture systems decreased under the future climate senarious. At Elliott, irrigated pastures and cropping systems increase yield while there was minimal or a negative impact on dryland pastures and cropping systems yields under the futre climate senarious. At all three locations forage production in the colder months of the year increased with a decrease in production during the warmer months. This study indicates that double cropping and irrigated pasture systems at all three locations appear resilient to projected changes in climate, however, for irrigated systems this assumes a reliable supply of irrigation water. The systems implications of how a shift in the seasonality of forage supply within these options impacts on the farm system as a whole warrants further investigation. |
Keywords | biophysical modeling, climate adaptation, pasture based dairy systems |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300205. Agricultural production systems simulation |
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling | |
300403. Agronomy | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | School of Sciences |
University of Melbourne | |
University of Tasmania | |
Massey University, New Zealand | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5z45/climate-change-effects-on-pasture-based-dairy-systems-in-south-eastern-australia
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