Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia

Article

Pembleton, K. G., Cullen, B. R., Rawnsley, R. P. and Ramilan, T.. 2021. "Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia." Crop and Pasture Science. 72 (9), pp. 666-677. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP20108
Article Title

Climate change effects on pasture-based dairy systems in south-eastern Australia

ERA Journal ID5177
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPembleton, K. G. (Author), Cullen, B. R. (Author), Rawnsley, R. P. (Author) and Ramilan, T. (Author)
Journal TitleCrop and Pasture Science
Journal Citation72 (9), pp. 666-677
Number of Pages12
Year2021
PublisherCSIRO Publishing
Place of PublicationClayton, Australia
ISSN0004-9409
1836-0947
1836-5795
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1071/CP20108
Web Address (URL)https://www.publish.csiro.au/cp/CP20108
Abstract

Increases in temperature, along with possible decreases in rainfall will influence the production of forage on Australian dairy farms. A biophysical simulation study was undertaken to compare the performance of perennial pastures and annual forage cropping systems under historical and two possible future climate scenarios for three key dairy locations of south-eastern Australia. Pastures and forage cropping systems were simulated with the biophysical models DairyMod and APSIM, respectively for a location with a heavy reliance on irrigation (Dookie, Victoria), a location with a partial reliance on irrigation (Elliott, Tasmania) and a dryland location (Terang, Victoria). The historical climate scenario (baseline scenario) had no augmentation to climate data and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 380 ppm, while the two future climate scenarios had either a 1oC increase in temperatures (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 435 ppm) and a concurrent 10% decrease in rainfall (+1/-10 scenario) or a 2oC increase in temperatures (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 535 ppm) and a concurrent 20% decrease in rainfall and (+2/-20 scenario). Mean annual dry matter (DM) yields (t DM/ha) at Dookie of the forage cropping options and the pasture systems increased under both the future climate scenarios but more irrigation was required. At Terang, the forage cropping systems increased yield while the yield of the pasture systems decreased under the future climate senarious. At Elliott, irrigated pastures and cropping systems increase yield while there was minimal or a negative impact on dryland pastures and cropping systems yields under the futre climate senarious. At all three locations forage production in the colder months of the year increased with a decrease in production during the warmer months. This study indicates that double cropping and irrigated pasture systems at all three locations appear resilient to projected changes in climate, however, for irrigated systems this assumes a reliable supply of irrigation water. The systems implications of how a shift in the seasonality of forage supply within these options impacts on the farm system as a whole warrants further investigation.

Keywordsbiophysical modeling, climate adaptation, pasture based dairy systems
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
300403. Agronomy
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Byline AffiliationsSchool of Sciences
University of Melbourne
University of Tasmania
Massey University, New Zealand
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Pembleton, Keith. 2012. "Frost risk associated with growing maize for silage on Tasmanian dairy farms." Rawnsley RP (ed.) 16th Australian Agronomy Conference: Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy (ASA 2012). Armidale, Australia 14 - 18 Oct 2012 Armidale, Australia.
Partitioning of taproot constituents and crown bud development are affected by water deficit in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)
Pembleton, Keith G., Volenec, Jeffrey J., Rawnsley, Richard P. and Donaghy, Daniel J.. 2010. "Partitioning of taproot constituents and crown bud development are affected by water deficit in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)." Crop Science: a journal serving the international community of crop scientists. 50 (3), pp. 989-999. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2009.03.0140
Yield, yield components and shoot morphology of four contrasting lucerne (Medicago sativa) cultivars grown in three cool temperate environments
Pembleton, K. G., Donaghy, D. J., Volenec, J. J., Smith, R. S. and Rawnsley, R. P.. 2010. "Yield, yield components and shoot morphology of four contrasting lucerne (Medicago sativa) cultivars grown in three cool temperate environments." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (6), pp. 503-511. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09351
Genotype by environment interactions of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in a cool temperate climate
Pembleton, K. G., Smith, R. S., Rawnsley, R. P., Donaghy, D. J. and Humphries, A. W.. 2010. "Genotype by environment interactions of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in a cool temperate climate." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (6), pp. 493-502. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09269
Effect of summer irrigation on seasonal changes in taproot reserves and the expression of winter dormancy/activity in four contrasting lucerne cultivars
Pembleton, K. G., Cunningham, S. M. and Volenec, J. J.. 2010. "Effect of summer irrigation on seasonal changes in taproot reserves and the expression of winter dormancy/activity in four contrasting lucerne cultivars." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (11), pp. 873 - 884. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP10030
Utilising leaf number as an indicator for defoliation to restrict stem growth in rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide
Pembleton, K.G., Lowe, K.F. and Bahnisch, L.M.. 2009. "Utilising leaf number as an indicator for defoliation to restrict stem growth in rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide." Tropical Grasslands. 43, pp. 79-85.
Water deficit alters canopy structure but not photosynthesis in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)
Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard P., Donaghy, Daniel J. and Volenec, Jeffrey J.. 2009. "Water deficit alters canopy structure but not photosynthesis in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)." Crop Science: a journal serving the international community of crop scientists. 49 (2), pp. 722-731. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2008.08.0456
Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo
Sinclair, K., Lowe, K.F. and Pembleton, K.G.. 2007. "Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo." Tropical Grasslands. 41 (4), pp. 260-268.
Potential of tropical forages for the Tasmanian dairy industry
Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard, Donaghy, Danny and Chamberlain, Peter. 2006. "Potential of tropical forages for the Tasmanian dairy industry." 13th Australian Agronomy Conference 2006. Perth, Australia 10 - 14 Sep 2006 Australia. Australian Society of Agronomy.