Evaluating the accuracy of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) simulating growth, development, and herbage nutritive characteristics of forage crops grown in the south-eastern dairy regions of Australia

Article

Pembleton, K. G., Rawnsley, R. P., Jacobs, J. L., Mickan, F. J., O'Brien, G. N., Cullen, B. R. and Ramilan, T.. 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) simulating growth, development, and herbage nutritive characteristics of forage crops grown in the south-eastern dairy regions of Australia." Crop and Pasture Science. 64 (2), pp. 147-164. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP12372
Article Title

Evaluating the accuracy of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) simulating growth, development, and herbage nutritive characteristics of forage crops grown in the south-eastern dairy regions of Australia

ERA Journal ID5177
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsPembleton, K. G. (Author), Rawnsley, R. P. (Author), Jacobs, J. L. (Author), Mickan, F. J. (Author), O'Brien, G. N. (Author), Cullen, B. R. (Author) and Ramilan, T. (Author)
Journal TitleCrop and Pasture Science
Journal Citation64 (2), pp. 147-164
Number of Pages18
Year2013
PublisherCSIRO Publishing
Place of PublicationAustralia
ISSN0004-9409
1836-0947
1836-5795
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1071/CP12372
Web Address (URL)http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=CP12372
Abstract

Pasture-based dairy farms are a complex system involving interactions between soils, pastures, forage crops, and livestock as well as the economic and social aspects of the business. Consequently, biophysical and farm systems models are becoming important tools to study pasture-based dairy systems. However, there is currently a paucity of modelling tools available for the simulation of one key component of the system—forage crops. This study evaluated the accuracy of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) in simulating dry matter (DM) yield, phenology, and herbage nutritive characteristics of forage crops grown in the dairy regions of south-eastern Australia. Simulation results were compared with data for forage wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), oats (Avena sativa L.), forage rape (Brassica napus L.), forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), and maize (Zea mays L.) collated from previous field research and demonstration activities undertaken across the dairy regions of south-eastern Australia. This study showed that APSIM adequately predicted the DM yield of forage crops, as evidenced by the range of values for the coefficient of determination (0.58–0.95), correlation coefficient (0.76–0.94), and bias correction factor (0.97–1.00). Crop phenology for maize, forage wheat, and oats was predicted with similar accuracy to forage crop DM yield, whereas the phenology of forage rape and forage sorghum was poorly predicted (R2 values 0.38 and 0.80, correlation coefficient 0.62 and –0.90, and bias correction factors 0.67 and 0.28, respectively). Herbage nutritive characteristics for all crop species were poorly predicted. While the selection of a model to explore an aspect of agricultural production will depend on the specific problem being addressed, the performance of APSIM in simulating forage crop DM yield and, in many cases, crop phenology, coupled with its ease of use, open access, and science-based mechanistic methods of simulating agricultural and crop processes, makes it an ideal model for exploring the influence of management and environment on forage crops grown on dairy farms in south-eastern Australia. Potential future model developments and improvements are discussed in the context of the results of this validation analysis.

Keywordsbrassicas; crop modelling; dry matter production; cereals; dairy; forage crops
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300499. Crop and pasture production not elsewhere classified
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Tasmania
Department of Primary Industries, Victoria
University of Melbourne
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Pembleton, K. G, Hill, B. D. and Rawnsley, R. P.. 2015. "Response of the DCAD of plantain to potassium fertilisation." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
APSIM Kale appropriately simulates spring and autumn grown forage kale crops in Tasmania
Pembleton, K.G, Harrison, M.T., Rawnsley, R.P., Zykowski, R., Chakwizira, E., de Ruiter, J. and Johnstone, P.R.. 2015. "APSIM Kale appropriately simulates spring and autumn grown forage kale crops in Tasmania." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australlia.
Plantain and chicory could potentially complement the perennial ryegrass dominant dairy feedbase
Pembleton, K. G.. 2015. "Plantain and chicory could potentially complement the perennial ryegrass dominant dairy feedbase." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Hobart.
Comparing within paddock yield variability of perennial ryegrass monocultures and perennial ryegrass, white clover and plantain mixtures using yield mapping
McLaren, David K. and Pembleton, Keith G.. 2015. "Comparing within paddock yield variability of perennial ryegrass monocultures and perennial ryegrass, white clover and plantain mixtures using yield mapping." 17th Australian Agronomy Conference 2015: Building Productive, Diverse and Sustainable Landscapes (AAC 2015). Hobart, Australia 20 - 24 Sep 2015 Australia.
Effect of defoliation management on expression of the ‘high sugar’ cultivar trait in Tasmania
Turner, Lydia R., Donaghy, Daniel J, Pembleton, Keith G. and Rawnsley, Richard P. 2013. "Effect of defoliation management on expression of the ‘high sugar’ cultivar trait in Tasmania." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Effect of nitrogen fertiliser applications on botanical composition
Turner, Lydia R., Donaghy, Daniel J., Pembleton, Keith G. and Rawnsley, Richard P.. 2013. "Effect of nitrogen fertiliser applications on botanical composition." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Impact of grazing on the silage yield of forage oat crops
Pembleton, Keith G., Harrison, Matthew T. and Rawnsley, Richard P.. 2013. "Impact of grazing on the silage yield of forage oat crops." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Early sowing and irrigating of rape crops in cool temperate environments boosts forage yield potential
Harrison, Matthew T., Pembleton, Keith G. and Rawnsley, Richard P.. 2013. "Early sowing and irrigating of rape crops in cool temperate environments boosts forage yield potential." 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Australia.
Frost risk associated with growing maize for silage on Tasmanian dairy farms
Pembleton, Keith. 2012. "Frost risk associated with growing maize for silage on Tasmanian dairy farms." Rawnsley RP (ed.) 16th Australian Agronomy Conference: Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy (ASA 2012). Armidale, Australia 14 - 18 Oct 2012 Armidale, Australia.
Partitioning of taproot constituents and crown bud development are affected by water deficit in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)
Pembleton, Keith G., Volenec, Jeffrey J., Rawnsley, Richard P. and Donaghy, Daniel J.. 2010. "Partitioning of taproot constituents and crown bud development are affected by water deficit in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)." Crop Science: a journal serving the international community of crop scientists. 50 (3), pp. 989-999. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2009.03.0140
Yield, yield components and shoot morphology of four contrasting lucerne (Medicago sativa) cultivars grown in three cool temperate environments
Pembleton, K. G., Donaghy, D. J., Volenec, J. J., Smith, R. S. and Rawnsley, R. P.. 2010. "Yield, yield components and shoot morphology of four contrasting lucerne (Medicago sativa) cultivars grown in three cool temperate environments." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (6), pp. 503-511. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09351
Genotype by environment interactions of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in a cool temperate climate
Pembleton, K. G., Smith, R. S., Rawnsley, R. P., Donaghy, D. J. and Humphries, A. W.. 2010. "Genotype by environment interactions of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in a cool temperate climate." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (6), pp. 493-502. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP09269
Effect of summer irrigation on seasonal changes in taproot reserves and the expression of winter dormancy/activity in four contrasting lucerne cultivars
Pembleton, K. G., Cunningham, S. M. and Volenec, J. J.. 2010. "Effect of summer irrigation on seasonal changes in taproot reserves and the expression of winter dormancy/activity in four contrasting lucerne cultivars." Crop and Pasture Science. 61 (11), pp. 873 - 884. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP10030
Utilising leaf number as an indicator for defoliation to restrict stem growth in rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide
Pembleton, K.G., Lowe, K.F. and Bahnisch, L.M.. 2009. "Utilising leaf number as an indicator for defoliation to restrict stem growth in rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) cv. Callide." Tropical Grasslands. 43, pp. 79-85.
Water deficit alters canopy structure but not photosynthesis in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)
Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard P., Donaghy, Daniel J. and Volenec, Jeffrey J.. 2009. "Water deficit alters canopy structure but not photosynthesis in regrowing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)." Crop Science: a journal serving the international community of crop scientists. 49 (2), pp. 722-731. https://doi.org/10.2135/cropsci2008.08.0456
Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo
Sinclair, K., Lowe, K.F. and Pembleton, K.G.. 2007. "Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo." Tropical Grasslands. 41 (4), pp. 260-268.
Potential of tropical forages for the Tasmanian dairy industry
Pembleton, Keith, Rawnsley, Richard, Donaghy, Danny and Chamberlain, Peter. 2006. "Potential of tropical forages for the Tasmanian dairy industry." 13th Australian Agronomy Conference 2006. Perth, Australia 10 - 14 Sep 2006 Australia. Australian Society of Agronomy.