Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease

Article

Garrett, K. A., Forbes, G. A., Savary, S., Skelsey, P., Sparks, A. H., Valdivia, C., van Bruggen, A. H. C., Willocquet, L., Djurle, A., Duveiller, E., Eckersten, H., Pande, S., Vera Cruz, C. and Yuen, J.. 2011. "Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease." Plant Pathology. 60 (1), pp. 15-30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02409.x
Article Title

Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease

ERA Journal ID2652
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsGarrett, K. A. (Author), Forbes, G. A. (Author), Savary, S. (Author), Skelsey, P. (Author), Sparks, A. H. (Author), Valdivia, C. (Author), van Bruggen, A. H. C. (Author), Willocquet, L. (Author), Djurle, A. (Author), Duveiller, E. (Author), Eckersten, H. (Author), Pande, S. (Author), Vera Cruz, C. (Author) and Yuen, J.
Journal TitlePlant Pathology
Journal Citation60 (1), pp. 15-30
Number of Pages16
Year2011
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0032-0862
1365-3059
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02409.x
Web Address (URL)http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02409.x/abstract;jsessionid=8C1C52F3603E0534AD17A27DB6AE4052.f03t02
Abstract

The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services are complex in the sense that effective prediction requires consideration of a wide range of factors. Useful analysis of climate-change impacts on crops and native plant systems will often require consideration of the wide array of other biota that interact with plants, including plant diseases, animal herbivores, and weeds. We present a framework for analysis of complexity in climate-change effects mediated by plant disease. This frame- work can support evaluation of the level of model complexity likely to be required for analysing climate-change impacts mediated by disease. Our analysis incorporates consideration of the following set of questions for a particular host, patho- gen, host–pathogen combination, or geographic region. 1. Are multiple biological interactions important? 2. Are there envi- ronmental thresholds for population responses? 3. Are there indirect effects of global change factors on disease development? 4. Are spatial components of epidemic processes affected by climate? 5. Are there feedback loops for manage- ment? 6. Are networks for intervention technologies slower than epidemic networks? 7. Are there effects of plant disease on multiple ecosystem services? 8. Are there feedback loops from plant disease to climate change? Evaluation of these questions will help in gauging system complexity, as illustrated for fusarium head blight and potato late blight. In practice, it may be necessary to expand models to include more components, identify those components that are the most important, and syn- thesize such models to include the optimal level of complexity for planning and research prioritization.

Keywordscereal head blight, disease risk, ecosystem services, fusarium graminearum, potato late blight, Phytophthora infestans
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020310805. Plant pathology
300409. Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
410102. Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation
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Byline AffiliationsKansas State University, United States
International Potato Center, Peru
International Rice Research Institute, Philippines
University of Missouri, United States
University of Florida, United States
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), India
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Savary, Serge, Nelson, Andrew, Sparks, Adam H, Willocquet, Laetitia, Duveiller, Etienne, Mahaku, George, Forbes, Greg, Garrett, Karen A., Hodson, David, Padgham, Jon, Pande, Suresh, Sharma, Mamta, Yuen, Jonathan and Djurle, Annika. 2011. "International agricultural research tackling the effects of global and climate changes on plant diseases in the developing world." Plant Disease: an international journal of applied plant pathology. 95 (10), pp. 1204-1216. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-04-11-0316
A metamodeling framework for extending the application domain of process-based ecological models
Sparks, Adam H., Forbes, Gregory A., Hijmans, Robert and Garrett, Karen A.. 2011. "A metamodeling framework for extending the application domain of process-based ecological models." Ecosphere. 2 (8). https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00128.1
Development of a genomics-based LAMP (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) assay for detection of Pseudomonas fuscovaginae from rice
Ash, Gavin J., Lang, Jillian M., Triplett, Lindsay R., Stodart, Benjamin J., Verdier, Valerie, Vera Cruz, Casiana, Rott, Philippe and Leach, Jan E.. 2014. "Development of a genomics-based LAMP (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) assay for detection of Pseudomonas fuscovaginae from rice ." Plant Disease: an international journal of applied plant pathology. 98 (7), pp. 909-915. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-13-0957-RE