Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight
Article
Article Title | Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight |
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ERA Journal ID | 3258 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Sparks, Adam H. (Author), Forbes, Gregory A. (Author), Hijmans, Robert J. (Author) and Garrett, Karen A. (Author) |
Journal Title | Global Change Biology |
Journal Citation | 20 (12), pp. 3621-3631 |
Number of Pages | 11 |
Year | 2014 |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
1365-2486 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12587 |
Web Address (URL) | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12587/abstract |
Abstract | Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000–2019, 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia. |
Keywords | climate change, food security, Phytophthora infestans, plant disease management, plant pathology, potato late blight |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300206. Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling |
310805. Plant pathology | |
319902. Global change biology | |
300409. Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds) | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | International Rice Research Institute, Philippines |
International Potato Center, China | |
University of California, United States | |
Kansas State University, United States | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q39x6/climate-change-may-have-limited-effect-on-global-risk-of-potato-late-blight
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