Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate

Article

Duku, Confidence, Sparks, Adam H. and Zwart, Sander J.. 2016. "Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 135 (3-4), pp. 569-583. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1580-2
Article Title

Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate

ERA Journal ID1965
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsDuku, Confidence (Author), Sparks, Adam H. (Author) and Zwart, Sander J. (Author)
Journal TitleClimatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Journal Citation135 (3-4), pp. 569-583
Number of Pages15
Year2016
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN0165-0009
1573-1480
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1580-2
Web Address (URL)http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1580-2
Abstract

Rice is the most rapidly growing staple food in Africa and although rice produc- tion is steadily increasing, the consumption is still out-pacing the production. In Tanzania, two important diseases in rice production are leaf blast caused by Magnaporthe oryzae and bacterial leaf blight caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae. The objective of this study was to quantify rice yield losses due to these two important diseases under a changing cli- mate. We found that bacterial leaf blight is predicted to increase causing greater losses than leaf blast in the future, with losses due to leaf blast declining. The results of this study indi- cate that the effects of climate change on plant disease can not only be expected to be uneven across diseases but also across geographies, as in some geographic areas losses increase but decrease in others for the same disease.

Keywordsrice; Tanzania; bacterial leaf blight; leaf blast; climate change
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300206. Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling
310805. Plant pathology
300409. Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
319902. Global change biology
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Byline AffiliationsAfrica Rice Center, Ivory Coast
Centre for Crop Health
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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