Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

Article

Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Resaul Kabir. 2017. "Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 130 (1-2), pp. 453-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
Article Title

Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

ERA Journal ID1991
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsRashid, Md. Mamunur (Author), Beecham, Simon (Author) and Chowdhury, Resaul Kabir (Author)
Journal TitleTheoretical and Applied Climatology
Journal Citation130 (1-2), pp. 453-466
Number of Pages14
Year2017
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationAustria
ISSN0177-798X
1434-4483
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1892-9
Abstract

In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041–2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently underpredicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A nonstationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041–2060) compared to the base period (1961–2000).

Keywordsextreme rainfall, simulation, GLIMCLIM model
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
400513. Water resources engineering
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of South Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2016. "Statistical downscaling of rainfall: a non-stationary and multi-resolution approach." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 124 (3-4), pp. 919-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1465-3
Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2016. "Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University." Australasian Journal of Engineering Education. 20 (1), pp. 81-94. https://doi.org/10.7158/D13-014.2015.20.1
Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., El-Shorbagy, Walid, Ghanma, Mwafag and El-Ashkar, Assem. 2015. "Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 15 (1), pp. 114-123. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2014.090
Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Beecham, Simon, Boland, John and Piantadosi, Julia. 2015. "Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes." International Journal of Climatology. 35 (3), pp. 348-360. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3982
Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia
Rashid, M. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia." Journal of Water and Climate Change. 6 (2), pp. 352-373. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.031
Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2015. "Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms." Advances in Water Resources. 82, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.006
Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment." Science of the Total Environment. 530-531, pp. 171-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.024
Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region." Water Science and Technology. 72 (12), pp. 2201-2211. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.442
Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates
Chowdhury, Rezaul, Mohamed, Mohamad M. A. and Murad, Ahmed. 2016. "Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates." Procedia Engineering. 154 (2016), pp. 639-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.563
Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2016. "Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE." Water Practice and Technology. 11 (4), pp. 806-814. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.086
Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Abaya, Jameelu S., Tsiksi, Taoufik and Mohamed, Mohamad M.. 2017. "Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes ." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C434), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C434
An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography
Hartcher, Michael G. and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2017. "An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography." Water Practice and Technology. 12 (2), pp. 478-486. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2017.053
Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2017. "Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 17 (1), pp. 246-258. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.131
Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE
Mohamed, Mohamed M., Murad, Ahmed and Chowdhury, RezaulKabir. 2017. "Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE." Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology. 98 ( 3), pp. 385-391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00128-016-2017-y
A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting
Haque, Md Mahmudul, Rahman, Ataur, Hagare, Dharma and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2018. "A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting." Water: an open access journal. 10 (4), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040419
An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate
Chowdhury, Rezaul K and Abaya, Jameelu S.. 2018. "An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C437), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C437
Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete." Advanced Materials Research. 295-297, pp. 873-879. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.295-297.873
Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model
Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R.. 2013. "Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L5.rashid
A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2013. "A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L20.chowdhury
Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete
Lian, Chunqi, Zhuge, Yan and Beecham, Simon. 2011. "Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete." Engineering Computations: international journal for computer-aided engineering and software. 28 (8), pp. 984-1002. https://doi.org/10.1108/02644401111178992
The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete ." Construction and Building Materials. 25 (11), pp. 4294-4298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2011.05.005
Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach." Advanced Materials Research. 168-170, pp. 1590-1600. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.168-170.1590
Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems
Chowdhury, R. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems." 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage (IUCD 2011). Porto Alegre, Brazil 11 - 16 Sep 2011 Brazil.