Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model

Paper


Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R.. 2013. "Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L5.rashid
Paper/Presentation Title

Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model

Presentation TypePaper
AuthorsRashid, M. M. (Author), Beecham, S. (Author) and Chowdhury, R. (Author)
EditorsPiantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J.
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings of the 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013)
Journal Citationpp. 2520-2526
Number of Pages7
Year2013
PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand
Place of PublicationAustralia
ISBN9780987214331
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L5.rashid
Web Address (URL) of Paperhttps://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/L5/rashid.pdf
Web Address (URL) of Conference Proceedingshttps://mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/papersbysession.html
Conference/Event20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013)
Event Details
Rank
C
C
C
C
C
C
Event Details
20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013)
Parent
International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
Delivery
In person
Event Date
01 to end of 06 Dec 2013
Event Location
Adelaide, Australia
Event Venue
Adelaide Convention Centre
Event Web Address (URL)
Abstract

Due to the changes in global climate, the intensity, frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfall events are changing and this has been documented in many recent studies. Increasing trends in extreme rainfall directly affects infrastructure, agriculture as well as public and ecosystem health. So, projection of changes in extreme rainfall events is useful for policy making associated with climate change adaptation. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the most important tool for climate change impact studies. But due to their coarse spatial resolution and their inability to capture local rainfall processes, GCMs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies. To bridge this gap downscaling has often been applied to transform GCM information to a finer resolution. There are broadly two types downscaling, namely dynamic and statistical methods. The latter is inexpensive and readily implementable compared to dynamic downscaling. Among several statistical downscaling techniques, generalized linear model (GLM) based downscaling techniques incorporate the spatial-temporal structure of rainfall. Because of this, GLMs have been used in several recent studies. However, application of this technique for downscaling of extreme rainfall events is relatively new. In this study, a GLM based multi-site downscaling technique has been applied using the GLIMCLIM software package for downscaling extreme rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment at nine rainfall stations. A GLM was fitted to the observed rainfall conditioned to several large scale atmospheric and circulation variables from NCEP reanalysis data for the calibration period 1991 to 2005. This relation was used to simulate the daily rainfall for the validation period (1981 to 1990) using NCEP reanalysis and CSIRO MK3.6 historical data and for the future period 2041 to 2060 using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of CSIRO MK3.6. These daily rainfall series were used to estimate extreme rainfall indices such as consecutive dry days (CDD), rainfall events greater than 10mm/day (R10) and annual maximum daily (AM) rainfall. As far our we are aware, this is the first attempt where a GLM technique has been applied for downscaling extreme rainfall events using large scale data from CMIP5 GCMs at least for the Australian climate. The study reveals that the model performed reasonably well in reproducing the CDD and AM rainfall whereas it underestimated the R10 statistics in most of the months of the year when driven by NCEP reanalysis data. Although the R10 was underestimated, the trend and variability were simulated well. Performance of the model deteriorates when driven by CSIRO MK3.6 historical data. Simulation differences between NCEP reanalysis and MK3.6 can be attributed by the bias in the large scale atmospheric and circulation variables. AM daily rainfall was reasonably downscaled for NCEP reanalysis data over the period 1981 to 2005, whereas it was overestimated most of the time at all rainfall stations in the simulation driven by MK3.6. AM rainfall magnitudes for different Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) when fitted to Log Pearson Type III distribution were significantly larger for the period 2041 to 2060 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of MK3.6 compared to the observed data over the period 1981 to 2005. But the reduced accuracy in the simulation run using MK3.6 data may be due to bias in the large scale atmospheric and circulation variables relative to NCEP reanalysis. The study concludes that the GLM can be used to downscale extreme rainfall events. Also non-stationarity in relation to local rainfall and large scale climate variables is considered as a source of uncertainty in climate change impact studies. Most importantly adequate bias correction in the GCM data is essential before any projection is made.

Keywordsgeneralized linear model, general circulation model, CMIP5, extreme rainfall events
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020400513. Water resources engineering
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of South Australia
United Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and Eslamian, Saeid. 2014. "Statistical parameters used for assessing hydrologic regime." Eslamian, Saeid (ed.) Handbook of engineering hydrology: Modeling, climate change, and variability . United States. CRC Press. pp. 537-551
Assessing and mitigating the hydrological impacts of urbanisation in semi-urban catchments using the Storm Water Management Model
Aryal, S. K., Ashbolt, S., McIntosh, B. S., Petrone, K. P., Maheepala, S., Chowdhury, R. K., Gardener, T. and Gardiner, R.. 2016. "Assessing and mitigating the hydrological impacts of urbanisation in semi-urban catchments using the Storm Water Management Model." Water Resources Management. 30 (14), pp. 5437-5454. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1499-z
Climate change and hydrologic modeling
Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and Eslamian, Saeid. 2014. "Climate change and hydrologic modeling." Eslamian, Saeid (ed.) Handbook of engineering hydrology: Modeling, climate change, and variability . United States. CRC Press. pp. 71-86
Analysis of rainfall, PMP and drought in the United Arab Emirates
Sherif, Mohsen, Almulla, Mohamed, Shetty, Ampar and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2014. "Analysis of rainfall, PMP and drought in the United Arab Emirates." International Journal of Climatology. 34 (4), pp. 1318-1328. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3768
Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model
Beecham, Simon, Rashid, Mamunur and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2014. "Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model." International Journal of Climatology. 34 (14), pp. 3654-3670. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3933
Potential and challenges of project-based learning in engineering education at the United Arab Emirates University
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Potential and challenges of project-based learning in engineering education at the United Arab Emirates University." Abdulwahed , Mahmoud, Hasna , Mazen O. and Froyd , Jeffrey E. (ed.) Advances in engineering education in the Middle East and North Africa: current status and future insights . Switzerland. Springer. pp. 323-342
Greywater quality changes in a permeable pavement reservoir
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Sharvelle, Sybil E. and Beecham, Simon. 2016. "Greywater quality changes in a permeable pavement reservoir." Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management. 169 (4), pp. 190-198. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.14.00107
Statistical downscaling of rainfall: a non-stationary and multi-resolution approach
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2016. "Statistical downscaling of rainfall: a non-stationary and multi-resolution approach." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 124 (3-4), pp. 919-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1465-3
Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2016. "Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University." Australasian Journal of Engineering Education. 20 (1), pp. 81-94. https://doi.org/10.7158/D13-014.2015.20.1
Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., El-Shorbagy, Walid, Ghanma, Mwafag and El-Ashkar, Assem. 2015. "Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 15 (1), pp. 114-123. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2014.090
Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Beecham, Simon, Boland, John and Piantadosi, Julia. 2015. "Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes." International Journal of Climatology. 35 (3), pp. 348-360. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3982
Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia
Rashid, M. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia." Journal of Water and Climate Change. 6 (2), pp. 352-373. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.031
Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2015. "Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms." Advances in Water Resources. 82, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.006
Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment." Science of the Total Environment. 530-531, pp. 171-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.024
Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region." Water Science and Technology. 72 (12), pp. 2201-2211. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.442
Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates
Chowdhury, Rezaul, Mohamed, Mohamad M. A. and Murad, Ahmed. 2016. "Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates." Procedia Engineering. 154 (2016), pp. 639-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.563
Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2016. "Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE." Water Practice and Technology. 11 (4), pp. 806-814. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.086
Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Abaya, Jameelu S., Tsiksi, Taoufik and Mohamed, Mohamad M.. 2017. "Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes ." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C434), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C434
An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography
Hartcher, Michael G. and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2017. "An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography." Water Practice and Technology. 12 (2), pp. 478-486. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2017.053
Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2017. "Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 17 (1), pp. 246-258. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.131
Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE
Mohamed, Mohamed M., Murad, Ahmed and Chowdhury, RezaulKabir. 2017. "Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE." Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology. 98 ( 3), pp. 385-391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00128-016-2017-y
Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Resaul Kabir. 2017. "Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 130 (1-2), pp. 453-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting
Haque, Md Mahmudul, Rahman, Ataur, Hagare, Dharma and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2018. "A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting." Water: an open access journal. 10 (4), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040419
An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate
Chowdhury, Rezaul K and Abaya, Jameelu S.. 2018. "An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C437), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C437
Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete." Advanced Materials Research. 295-297, pp. 873-879. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.295-297.873
A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2013. "A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L20.chowdhury
Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete
Lian, Chunqi, Zhuge, Yan and Beecham, Simon. 2011. "Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete." Engineering Computations: international journal for computer-aided engineering and software. 28 (8), pp. 984-1002. https://doi.org/10.1108/02644401111178992
The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete ." Construction and Building Materials. 25 (11), pp. 4294-4298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2011.05.005
Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach." Advanced Materials Research. 168-170, pp. 1590-1600. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.168-170.1590
Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems
Chowdhury, R. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems." 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage (IUCD 2011). Porto Alegre, Brazil 11 - 16 Sep 2011 Brazil.