Evaluation of spatio-temporal rainfall variability and performance of a stochastic rainfall model in Bangladesh

Article

Chowdhury, A. F. M. Kamal, Kar, Kanak Kanti, Shahid, Shamsuddin, Chowdhury, Rezaul and Rashid, Md. Mamunur. 2019. "Evaluation of spatio-temporal rainfall variability and performance of a stochastic rainfall model in Bangladesh." International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6071
Article Title

Evaluation of spatio-temporal rainfall variability and performance of a stochastic rainfall model in Bangladesh

ERA Journal ID1969
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChowdhury, A. F. M. Kamal (Author), Kar, Kanak Kanti (Author), Shahid, Shamsuddin (Author), Chowdhury, Rezaul (Author) and Rashid, Md. Mamunur (Author)
Journal TitleInternational Journal of Climatology
Number of Pages18
Year2019
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0899-8418
1097-0088
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6071
Web Address (URL)https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6071
Abstract

Rainfall in Bangladesh exhibits persistent wet and dry anomalies associated with occurrence of floods and droughts. Assessing inter‐annual variability of rainfall is vital to account these hydrological extremes in the design and operations of water systems. However, the inter‐annual variability obtained from short record rainfall data might be misleading as it does not contain whole climate variability which signifies the utmost importance of stochastic rainfall models. Since the inter‐annual variability and stochastic models have not been explored adequately for rainfall in Bangladesh, this study evaluated (a) the spatio‐temporal variability of rainfall focusing on inter‐annual variability, and (b) applicability of a stochastic daily rainfall model, referred as the Decadal and Hierarchical Markov Chain (DHMC) model. Daily rainfall data of 1973–2012 for 18 stations across Bangladesh were used to investigate the probability distributions and autocorrelations of rainfall, and the model performances. Results show a higher magnitude of inter‐annual variabilities of rainfall depth (standard deviation 80–250 mm) and wet spells (standard deviation 4–6 days) in wetter months (June to September) across rainfall stations in the east region of the country. In contrast, higher rates of inter‐annual variabilities (i.e., coefficients of variations) were observed in drier months across the west region. Spatially, the dry spells were observed consistent across the country. Monthly rainfall showed decreasing trend over the region from west to the middle part of the country, whereas monthly number of wet days showed increasing trend over the eastern part. The DHMC was found to preserve the observed variabilities of rainfall at daily to multiyear resolutions at all stations, except a tendency to underestimate the autocorrelation of monthly rainfall depth. Despite this limitation, DHMC can be considered as a suitable stochastic rainfall simulator for a tropical monsoon climate like Bangladesh.

KeywordsDHMC, rainfall variability, stochastic simulation, wet–dry spell
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
400513. Water resources engineering
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsSingapore University of Technology and Design
Center for Water and Climate Studies, Bangladesh
University of Technology Malaysia, Malaysia
School of Civil Engineering and Surveying
University of Central Florida, United States
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul. 2012. "Effects of changing rainfall patterns on WSUD in Australia." Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management. 165 (5), pp. 285-298. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.10.00115
Can stormwater harvesting restore pre-development flows in urban catchments in South East Queensland?
Ashbolt, S., Aryal, S., Petrone, K., McIntosh, B. S., Maheepala, S., Chowdhury, R. and Gardner, T.. 2012. "Can stormwater harvesting restore pre-development flows in urban catchments in South East Queensland?" Water Science and Technology. 67 (2), pp. 446-451. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2012.582
Informatics, logistics and governance in water treatment processes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and El-Shorbagy, Walid. 2013. "Informatics, logistics and governance in water treatment processes." Elshorbagy, Walid and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir (ed.) Water treatment. Croatia. In-Tech. pp. 3-12
Water treatment
Elshorbagy, Walid and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. Elshorbagy, Walid and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir (ed.) 2013. Water treatment. Croatia. In-Tech.
Characterization of rainfall spells for urban water management
Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and Beecham, Simon. 2013. "Characterization of rainfall spells for urban water management." International Journal of Climatology. 33 (4), pp. 959-967. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3482
Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia
Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R.. 2013. "Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia ." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion. 10 (5), pp. 5975-6017. https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-5975-2013
Influence of SOI, DMI and Niño3.4 on South Australian rainfall
Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and Beecham, Simon. 2013. "Influence of SOI, DMI and Niño3.4 on South Australian rainfall." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 27 (8), pp. 1909-1920. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0726-x
Statistical parameters used for assessing hydrologic regime
Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and Eslamian, Saeid. 2014. "Statistical parameters used for assessing hydrologic regime." Eslamian, Saeid (ed.) Handbook of engineering hydrology: Modeling, climate change, and variability . United States. CRC Press. pp. 537-551
Assessing and mitigating the hydrological impacts of urbanisation in semi-urban catchments using the Storm Water Management Model
Aryal, S. K., Ashbolt, S., McIntosh, B. S., Petrone, K. P., Maheepala, S., Chowdhury, R. K., Gardener, T. and Gardiner, R.. 2016. "Assessing and mitigating the hydrological impacts of urbanisation in semi-urban catchments using the Storm Water Management Model." Water Resources Management. 30 (14), pp. 5437-5454. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1499-z
Climate change and hydrologic modeling
Chowdhury, Rezaul K. and Eslamian, Saeid. 2014. "Climate change and hydrologic modeling." Eslamian, Saeid (ed.) Handbook of engineering hydrology: Modeling, climate change, and variability . United States. CRC Press. pp. 71-86
Analysis of rainfall, PMP and drought in the United Arab Emirates
Sherif, Mohsen, Almulla, Mohamed, Shetty, Ampar and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2014. "Analysis of rainfall, PMP and drought in the United Arab Emirates." International Journal of Climatology. 34 (4), pp. 1318-1328. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3768
Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model
Beecham, Simon, Rashid, Mamunur and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2014. "Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model." International Journal of Climatology. 34 (14), pp. 3654-3670. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3933
Potential and challenges of project-based learning in engineering education at the United Arab Emirates University
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Potential and challenges of project-based learning in engineering education at the United Arab Emirates University." Abdulwahed , Mahmoud, Hasna , Mazen O. and Froyd , Jeffrey E. (ed.) Advances in engineering education in the Middle East and North Africa: current status and future insights . Switzerland. Springer. pp. 323-342
Greywater quality changes in a permeable pavement reservoir
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Sharvelle, Sybil E. and Beecham, Simon. 2016. "Greywater quality changes in a permeable pavement reservoir." Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management. 169 (4), pp. 190-198. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.14.00107
Statistical downscaling of rainfall: a non-stationary and multi-resolution approach
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2016. "Statistical downscaling of rainfall: a non-stationary and multi-resolution approach." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 124 (3-4), pp. 919-933. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1465-3
Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2016. "Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University." Australasian Journal of Engineering Education. 20 (1), pp. 81-94. https://doi.org/10.7158/D13-014.2015.20.1
Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., El-Shorbagy, Walid, Ghanma, Mwafag and El-Ashkar, Assem. 2015. "Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 15 (1), pp. 114-123. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2014.090
Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Beecham, Simon, Boland, John and Piantadosi, Julia. 2015. "Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes." International Journal of Climatology. 35 (3), pp. 348-360. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3982
Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia
Rashid, M. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia." Journal of Water and Climate Change. 6 (2), pp. 352-373. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.031
Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2015. "Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms." Advances in Water Resources. 82, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.006
Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment." Science of the Total Environment. 530-531, pp. 171-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.024
Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region." Water Science and Technology. 72 (12), pp. 2201-2211. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.442
Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates
Chowdhury, Rezaul, Mohamed, Mohamad M. A. and Murad, Ahmed. 2016. "Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates." Procedia Engineering. 154 (2016), pp. 639-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.563
Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2016. "Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE." Water Practice and Technology. 11 (4), pp. 806-814. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.086
Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Abaya, Jameelu S., Tsiksi, Taoufik and Mohamed, Mohamad M.. 2017. "Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes ." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C434), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C434
An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography
Hartcher, Michael G. and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2017. "An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography." Water Practice and Technology. 12 (2), pp. 478-486. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2017.053
Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2017. "Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 17 (1), pp. 246-258. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.131
Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE
Mohamed, Mohamed M., Murad, Ahmed and Chowdhury, RezaulKabir. 2017. "Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE." Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology. 98 ( 3), pp. 385-391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00128-016-2017-y
Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Resaul Kabir. 2017. "Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 130 (1-2), pp. 453-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting
Haque, Md Mahmudul, Rahman, Ataur, Hagare, Dharma and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2018. "A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting." Water: an open access journal. 10 (4), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040419
An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate
Chowdhury, Rezaul K and Abaya, Jameelu S.. 2018. "An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C437), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C437
Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model
Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R.. 2013. "Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L5.rashid
A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2013. "A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L20.chowdhury
Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems
Chowdhury, R. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems." 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage (IUCD 2011). Porto Alegre, Brazil 11 - 16 Sep 2011 Brazil.