Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model

Article

Beecham, Simon, Rashid, Mamunur and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2014. "Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model." International Journal of Climatology. 34 (14), pp. 3654-3670. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3933
Article Title

Statistical downscaling of multi-site daily rainfall in a South Australian catchment using a Generalized Linear Model

ERA Journal ID1969
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsBeecham, Simon (Author), Rashid, Mamunur (Author) and Chowdhury, Rezaul K. (Author)
Journal TitleInternational Journal of Climatology
Journal Citation34 (14), pp. 3654-3670
Number of Pages17
Year2014
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0899-8418
1097-0088
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3933
Web Address (URL)https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.3933
Abstract

The intention of this study was to identify a suitable Generalized Linear Model (GLM) for modelling multi‐site daily rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia and to examine the suitability of the model for downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM) rainfall projections. A GLM was applied and multi‐site daily rainfall was downscaled using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis datasets. Nineteen large‐scale atmospheric and circulation variables were selected at first and these were eventually reduced, based on correlation with daily rainfall, to 10 final variables to be used in the model. First, logistic regression was used to identify the wet and dry days, then wet day rainfall was modelled using a gamma distribution. The model was fitted for a calibration period (1991–2010) and it was then validated over the period 1981–1990. Several summary statistics including mean, standard deviation, number of wet days, maximum rainfall amount and lag 1 and lag 2 autocorrelations were used to check the model performance. The 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated rainfall statistics were plotted against the observed rainfall statistics and it was shown that most of the observed statistics were within these bounds. Area averaged and station wise monthly, seasonal and annual totals for observed and simulated rainfall were estimated and compared. The overall performance of the GLM to downscale rainfall was considered satisfactory. However, a few discrepancies were observed in different performance statistics. Parameterization of the model to capture the local convective variability of rainfall would increase the model performance. It was found overall that the GLM can be applied for downscaling of GCM rainfall projections for this catchment.

KeywordsGeneralized Linear Model, rainfall modelling, statistical downscaling, climate change, General Circulation Model, spatial and temporal variability
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
400513. Water resources engineering
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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of South Australia
United Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Chowdhury, R. K.. 2016. "Learning and teaching style assessment for improving project-based learning of engineering students: a case of United Arab Emirates University." Australasian Journal of Engineering Education. 20 (1), pp. 81-94. https://doi.org/10.7158/D13-014.2015.20.1
Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., El-Shorbagy, Walid, Ghanma, Mwafag and El-Ashkar, Assem. 2015. "Quantitative assessment of residential water end uses and greywater generation in the City of Al Ain." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 15 (1), pp. 114-123. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2014.090
Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Beecham, Simon, Boland, John and Piantadosi, Julia. 2015. "Understanding South Australian rainfall trends and step changes." International Journal of Climatology. 35 (3), pp. 348-360. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3982
Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia
Rashid, M. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical characteristics of rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia." Journal of Water and Climate Change. 6 (2), pp. 352-373. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.031
Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2015. "Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms." Advances in Water Resources. 82, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.006
Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment." Science of the Total Environment. 530-531, pp. 171-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.024
Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region." Water Science and Technology. 72 (12), pp. 2201-2211. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.442
Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates
Chowdhury, Rezaul, Mohamed, Mohamad M. A. and Murad, Ahmed. 2016. "Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates." Procedia Engineering. 154 (2016), pp. 639-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.563
Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2016. "Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE." Water Practice and Technology. 11 (4), pp. 806-814. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.086
Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Abaya, Jameelu S., Tsiksi, Taoufik and Mohamed, Mohamad M.. 2017. "Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes ." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C434), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C434
An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography
Hartcher, Michael G. and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2017. "An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography." Water Practice and Technology. 12 (2), pp. 478-486. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2017.053
Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2017. "Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 17 (1), pp. 246-258. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.131
Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE
Mohamed, Mohamed M., Murad, Ahmed and Chowdhury, RezaulKabir. 2017. "Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE." Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology. 98 ( 3), pp. 385-391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00128-016-2017-y
Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Resaul Kabir. 2017. "Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 130 (1-2), pp. 453-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting
Haque, Md Mahmudul, Rahman, Ataur, Hagare, Dharma and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2018. "A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting." Water: an open access journal. 10 (4), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040419
An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate
Chowdhury, Rezaul K and Abaya, Jameelu S.. 2018. "An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C437), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C437
Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete." Advanced Materials Research. 295-297, pp. 873-879. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.295-297.873
Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model
Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R.. 2013. "Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L5.rashid
A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2013. "A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L20.chowdhury
Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete
Lian, Chunqi, Zhuge, Yan and Beecham, Simon. 2011. "Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete." Engineering Computations: international journal for computer-aided engineering and software. 28 (8), pp. 984-1002. https://doi.org/10.1108/02644401111178992
The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete ." Construction and Building Materials. 25 (11), pp. 4294-4298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2011.05.005
Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach." Advanced Materials Research. 168-170, pp. 1590-1600. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.168-170.1590
Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems
Chowdhury, R. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems." 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage (IUCD 2011). Porto Alegre, Brazil 11 - 16 Sep 2011 Brazil.