Suitability of a Transitional Probability Matrix model for catchment scale rainfall projections

Paper

Chowdhury, R. K. and Beecham, S.. 2012. "Suitability of a Transitional Probability Matrix model for catchment scale rainfall projections." 9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis: UrbanRain12 . St. Moritz, Switzerland 06 - 09 Dec 2012 Switzerland.
Paper/Presentation Title

Suitability of a Transitional Probability Matrix model for catchment scale rainfall projections

Presentation TypePaper
AuthorsChowdhury, R. K. (Author) and Beecham, S. (Author)
Journal or Proceedings Title9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis: UrbanRain12
Number of Pages7
Year2012
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
Conference/Event9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis: UrbanRain12
Event Details
9th International Workshop on Precipitation in Urban Areas: Urban Challenges in Rainfall Analysis: UrbanRain12
Event Date
06 to end of 09 Dec 2012
Event Location
St. Moritz, Switzerland
Abstract

Projecting rainfall and water availability in a changing climate is a well researched area. Stochastic and dynamic downscaling techniques are both currently being used to develop rainfall projections from GCM model outputs. While most of these techniques are adequate for reproducing historical rainfall characteristics, a wide range of variability are generally observed in the generated rainfall projections. These lead to a wide range of variability and uncertainty in hydrological and water availability projections. In this paper, we describe how ensembles of daily rainfall data have been generated from 2035 to 2065 using a Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM) model (CRCCH, 2006) for two catchments located in the South Australian Mount Lofty region. These are the Aldgate Creek catchment (7.9 km2) and the Inverbrakie Creek catchment (8.4 km2). It was found that generated daily rainfalls reproduced well the historical rainfall characteristics for these two catchments. The generated replicates of rainfall from 2035 to 2065 were compared with the CSIRO Mk3 (A2 scenario) generated downscaled rainfall replicates. It was found that while the 50th percentile rainfall projections from both models were well matched, the variability of CSIRO Mk3 generated rainfalls was significantly high in comparision to the TPM model generated rainfalls.

KeywordsRainfall, transitional probability matrix, climate projection, uncertainty
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020400513. Water resources engineering
Public Notes

© 2018 ETH Zurich

Byline AffiliationsUnited Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates
University of South Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2015. "Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms." Advances in Water Resources. 82, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.04.006
Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment." Science of the Total Environment. 530-531, pp. 171-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.024
Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region
Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2015. "Greywater reuse through a bioretention system prototype in the arid region." Water Science and Technology. 72 (12), pp. 2201-2211. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.442
Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates
Chowdhury, Rezaul, Mohamed, Mohamad M. A. and Murad, Ahmed. 2016. "Variability of extreme hydro-climate parameters in the north-eastern region of United Arab Emirates." Procedia Engineering. 154 (2016), pp. 639-644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.563
Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2016. "Leakage and failures of water distribution mains in the city of Al Ain, UAE." Water Practice and Technology. 11 (4), pp. 806-814. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2016.086
Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes
Chowdhury, Rezaul K., Abaya, Jameelu S., Tsiksi, Taoufik and Mohamed, Mohamad M.. 2017. "Greywater quality changes in laboratory scale vegetative biofiltration prototypes ." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C434), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C434
An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography
Hartcher, Michael G. and Chowdhury, Rezaul K.. 2017. "An alternative method for estimating total impervious area in catchments using high-resolution colour aerial photography." Water Practice and Technology. 12 (2), pp. 478-486. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2017.053
Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE
Chowdhury, R. K. and Rajput, M. A.. 2017. "Will greywater reuse really affect the sewer flow? Experience of a residential complex in Al Ain, UAE." Water Science and Technology: Water Supply. 17 (1), pp. 246-258. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2016.131
Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE
Mohamed, Mohamed M., Murad, Ahmed and Chowdhury, RezaulKabir. 2017. "Evaluation of groundwater quality in the Eastern District of Abu Dhabi Emirate, UAE." Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology. 98 ( 3), pp. 385-391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00128-016-2017-y
Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model
Rashid, Md. Mamunur, Beecham, Simon and Chowdhury, Resaul Kabir. 2017. "Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 130 (1-2), pp. 453-466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1892-9
A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting
Haque, Md Mahmudul, Rahman, Ataur, Hagare, Dharma and Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir. 2018. "A comparative assessment of variable selection methods in urban water demand forecasting." Water: an open access journal. 10 (4), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040419
An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate
Chowdhury, Rezaul K and Abaya, Jameelu S.. 2018. "An experimental study of greywater irrigated green roof systems in an arid climate." The Journal of Water Management Modeling (JWMM). 26 (C437), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C437
Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Evaluation of permeability of porous concrete." Advanced Materials Research. 295-297, pp. 873-879. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.295-297.873
Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model
Rashid, M. M., Beecham, S. and Chowdhury, R.. 2013. "Simulation of extreme rainfall from CMIP5 in the Onkaparinga catchment using a generalized linear model." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L5.rashid
A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city
Chowdhury, R. K.. 2013. "A stochastic model of domestic water consumption and greywater generation in the Al Ain city." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.L20.chowdhury
Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete
Lian, Chunqi, Zhuge, Yan and Beecham, Simon. 2011. "Numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of porous concrete." Engineering Computations: international journal for computer-aided engineering and software. 28 (8), pp. 984-1002. https://doi.org/10.1108/02644401111178992
The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "The relationship between porosity and strength for porous concrete ." Construction and Building Materials. 25 (11), pp. 4294-4298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2011.05.005
Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach
Lian, C., Zhuge, Y. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Modelling pervious concrete under compression loading: a discrete element approach." Advanced Materials Research. 168-170, pp. 1590-1600. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.168-170.1590
Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems
Chowdhury, R. and Beecham, S.. 2011. "Performance criteria for multi-sourced urban water systems." 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage (IUCD 2011). Porto Alegre, Brazil 11 - 16 Sep 2011 Brazil.