Modeling competition over product life cycles

Article

Chan, Ka Ching and Mills, Terry M.. 2015. "Modeling competition over product life cycles." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research. 32 (4), pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217595915500219
Article Title

Modeling competition over product life cycles

ERA Journal ID58
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChan, Ka Ching (Author) and Mills, Terry M. (Author)
Journal TitleAsia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research
Journal Citation32 (4), pp. 1-16
Number of Pages16
Year2015
PublisherWorld Scientific Publishing
Place of PublicationSingapore
ISSN0217-5959
1793-7019
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217595915500219
Web Address (URL)https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217595915500219
Abstract

This paper presents a mathematical model, linking the classical Markov models for brand switching and models for product life cycles, to forecast competition analysis and market share. This integrated model can be used to forecast market shares of all competitors, and their market shares, including customers retained, customers gained from market growth, and customers gained from competitors over the product life cycle. Such information provides forecasters with valuable insight about their market positions. The model is generic and can be applied to different types of products and services, under different types and patterns of product life cycle curves. A numerical example on a typical mobile telecommunication industry is used to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

KeywordsMarkov chain; forecasting; product life cycle; market share; competition; brand switching
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020460902. Decision support and group support systems
359999. Other commerce, management, tourism and services not elsewhere classified
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Byline AffiliationsLa Trobe University
Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service, Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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