Market share modelling and forecasting using Markov chains and alternative models
Article
Article Title | Market share modelling and forecasting using Markov chains and alternative models |
---|---|
ERA Journal ID | 3492 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | |
Author | Chan, Ka Ching |
Journal Title | International Journal of Innovative Computing Information and Control |
Journal Citation | 11 (4), pp. 1205-1218 |
Number of Pages | 14 |
Year | 2015 |
Place of Publication | Japan |
ISSN | 1349-4198 |
Web Address (URL) | http://www.ijicic.org/ijicic-14-09005.pdf |
Abstract | Markov chain has been a popular approach for market share modelling and forecasting in many industries. This paper presents four mathematical models for the same market share problem based on different underlying assumptions. The four models include a homogeneous Markov model, a time-varying Markov model, a new extended time-varying Markov model, and a novel non-Markov model. A numerical example in the telecommunications industry is included to illustrate that all four models can be used, for market share forecasting. Although Markov models are popular, forecasters should be cautious in choosing Markov or the alternative models for their problems in hand. In order to achieve the best forecasting results, forecasters should, have in-depth understanding of the industries, market conditions, and trends, then make appropriate assumptions, and apply or even develop the most suitable models. |
Keywords | Markov chain, market share, forecasting, brand switching, competition |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 460207. Modelling and simulation |
359999. Other commerce, management, tourism and services not elsewhere classified | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | La Trobe University |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q4q7y/market-share-modelling-and-forecasting-using-markov-chains-and-alternative-models
664
total views10
total downloads3
views this month0
downloads this month