When probability trees don't work

Article

Chan, K. C., Lenard, C. T. and Mills, T. M.. 2016. "When probability trees don't work." International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology. 47 (6), pp. 972-976. https://doi.org/10.1080/0020739X.2015.1124932
Article Title

When probability trees don't work

ERA Journal ID20498
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsChan, K. C. (Author), Lenard, C. T. (Author) and Mills, T. M. (Author)
Journal TitleInternational Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology
Journal Citation47 (6), pp. 972-976
Number of Pages5
Year2016
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0020-739X
1464-5211
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/0020739X.2015.1124932
Web Address (URL)https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0020739X.2015.1124932
Abstract

Tree diagrams arise naturally in courses on probability at high school or university, even at an elementary level. Often they are used to depict outcomes and associated probabilities from a sequence of games. A subtle issue is whether or not the Markov condition holds in the sequence of games. We present two examples that illustrate the importance of this issue. Suggestions as to how these examples may be used in a classroom are offered.

KeywordsMarkov condition; conditional probability; teaching probability; simulation
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020499999. Other mathematical sciences not elsewhere classified
390109. Mathematics and numeracy curriculum and pedagogy
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Byline AffiliationsLa Trobe University
Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service, Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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