European industrial production in the face of energy dynamics and geopolitical shocks
Article
| Article Title | European industrial production in the face of energy dynamics and geopolitical shocks |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 5115 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Sohag, Kazi, Karass, Vsevolod and Alam, Khorshed |
| Journal Title | Energy |
| Journal Citation | 316 |
| Article Number | 134451 |
| Number of Pages | 30 |
| Year | 2025 |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
| ISSN | 0360-5442 |
| 1873-6785 | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.134451 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225000933 |
| Abstract | We assess the resilience and vulnerability of European industrial production to cyclical hydrocarbon-price shocks, geopolitical risks, and real effective exchange rates. Employing advanced analytical tools such as Panel VAR-GMM and Dynamic Common Correlation Effect (DCCE), we analyse monthly data from January 2000 to June 2023, encompassing 23 selected EU countries. Our findings reveal that European industrial production exhibits a degree of vulnerability to oil price shocks, particularly in the case of manufacturing production. Conversely, the industrial sector demonstrates resilience when faced with shocks in gas prices. Notably, industrial production responds adversely to geopolitical risks and escalations, with the impact being more pronounced in the presence of geopolitically induced hydrocarbon price shocks. Our country-specific analysis underscores significant variations in vulnerability and resilience across the examined nations. The implications of our study extend to the formulation of pertinent policy measures tailored to address the specific challenges identified in each context. |
| Keywords | Industrial production; EU; PVAR; Geopolitical risks; Oil price shocks |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 380105. Environment and resource economics |
| 380204. Panel data analysis | |
| 410403. Environmental education and extension | |
| Public Notes | The accessible file is the submitted version of the paper. Please refer to the URL for the published version. |
| Byline Affiliations | Ural Federal University, Russia |
| School of Business |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/zv1z2/european-industrial-production-in-the-face-of-energy-dynamics-and-geopolitical-shocks
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