Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2Steven

Article

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Paul, Paul and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2Steven ." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 63 (11), pp. 1363-1383. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0181.1
Article Title

Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2Steven

ERA Journal ID1973
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsTaylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Paul, Paul and Harris, Sarah
Journal TitleJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Journal Citation63 (11), pp. 1363-1383
Number of Pages21
Year2024
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN1558-8424
1558-8432
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0181.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/63/11/JAMC-D-23-0181.1.xml
Abstract

The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in Australia, driven by climate change, pose a significant threat to ecosystems, lives, and property. This study examines the impact of climate drivers, specifically El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and two modes of persistent high pressure in the Australia–Pacific region, on extreme fire danger. By analyzing observed and simulated fire danger in relation to these climate drivers, we aim to enhance our understanding of climate–fire mechanisms and contribute to Australia’s bushfire preparedness. Our findings indicate that all assessed drivers influence extreme fire danger, with key influences related to the drivers’ established relationships with rainfall and temperature. El Niño, positive IOD, and negative SAM events generally increase extreme fire danger across most of Australia and in most seasons. The two modes of Australian blocking exhibit similar effects, varying spatially. Specific phases of the MJO have significant seasonal relationships with fire danger. In some instances, increased fire danger is not directly linked to temperature or precipitation changes but rather driven by remote teleconnections, airflow, or pressure anomalies. Evaluating the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting systems in representing these relationships is crucial for the effective prediction and mitigation of fire hazards. The leading Australian climate simulation model effectively reproduces observed relationships but reveals biases in capturing certain aspects of climate variability. Advancements in this field would enhance fire weather forecasts, including those by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with lead times of up to 4 months.

KeywordsWildfires; Climate variability; Seasonal forecasting; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting; Forest fires
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370105. Atmospheric dynamics
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Byline AffiliationsAustralian National University
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Australia
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