Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit

Paper

Winzar, Hume, Bloxsome, Ellen and Mills, Michael K.. 2004. "Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit." ANZMAC 2004: Marketing Accountabilities and Responsibilities. Wellington, New Zealand 29 Nov - 01 Dec 2004 Wellington, New Zealand.
Paper/Presentation Title

Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit

Presentation TypePaper
AuthorsWinzar, Hume (Author), Bloxsome, Ellen (Author) and Mills, Michael K. (Author)
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings of the 2004 Australian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference (ANZMAC 2004)
Number of Pages6
Year2004
Place of PublicationWellington, New Zealand
ISBN0475122143
Web Address (URL) of Paperhttp://smib.vuw.ac.nz:8081/WWW/ANZMAC2004/CDsite/papers/Winzar1.PDF
Conference/EventANZMAC 2004: Marketing Accountabilities and Responsibilities
Event Details
ANZMAC 2004: Marketing Accountabilities and Responsibilities
Parent
ANZMAC Conference
Event Date
29 Nov 2004 to end of 01 Dec 2004
Event Location
Wellington, New Zealand
Abstract

We report on a field test of a new Individual-level Multinomial Probit (IMNP) model that applies to stated preference data gathered at the level of the individual consumer. Instead of inferring a covariance matrix of brand alternatives from a large sample of revealed preferences at the group level, this approach derives a covariance matrix from brand attribute similarities, weighted by the attribute importances for each consumer. The proposed IMNP simulator is not subject to the problem of Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). Results from a Monte Carlo simulation show that the simulator performs as well as or better than the traditional Maximum Utility Rule (MUR) in ordinary situations, but is particularly useful with small samples. The simulator lends itself to forecasting shares for product assortments and frequently repurchased product classes. The paper outlines the new IMNP and reports on preliminary steps of a field test of the model, testing forecasting accuracy of students’ preferences of confectionary in product assortment selection and repeat purchase situations.

Keywordsconjoint analysis, multinomial probit, preference simulator, choice simulator,product assortment
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350699. Marketing not elsewhere classified
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsGriffith University
School of Management and Marketing
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