Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit
Paper
Paper/Presentation Title | Forecasting shares for multiple purchases: towards a test of the new individual-level multinomial probit |
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Presentation Type | Paper |
Authors | Winzar, Hume (Author), Bloxsome, Ellen (Author) and Mills, Michael K. (Author) |
Journal or Proceedings Title | Proceedings of the 2004 Australian and New Zealand Marketing Academy Conference (ANZMAC 2004) |
Number of Pages | 6 |
Year | 2004 |
Place of Publication | Wellington, New Zealand |
ISBN | 0475122143 |
Web Address (URL) of Paper | http://smib.vuw.ac.nz:8081/WWW/ANZMAC2004/CDsite/papers/Winzar1.PDF |
Conference/Event | ANZMAC 2004: Marketing Accountabilities and Responsibilities |
Event Details | ANZMAC 2004: Marketing Accountabilities and Responsibilities Parent ANZMAC Conference Event Date 29 Nov 2004 to end of 01 Dec 2004 Event Location Wellington, New Zealand |
Abstract | We report on a field test of a new Individual-level Multinomial Probit (IMNP) model that applies to stated preference data gathered at the level of the individual consumer. Instead of inferring a covariance matrix of brand alternatives from a large sample of revealed preferences at the group level, this approach derives a covariance matrix from brand attribute similarities, weighted by the attribute importances for each consumer. The proposed IMNP simulator is not subject to the problem of Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). Results from a Monte Carlo simulation show that the simulator performs as well as or better than the traditional Maximum Utility Rule (MUR) in ordinary situations, but is particularly useful with small samples. The simulator lends itself to forecasting shares for product assortments and frequently repurchased product classes. The paper outlines the new IMNP and reports on preliminary steps of a field test of the model, testing forecasting accuracy of students’ preferences of confectionary in product assortment selection and repeat purchase situations. |
Keywords | conjoint analysis, multinomial probit, preference simulator, choice simulator,product assortment |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 350699. Marketing not elsewhere classified |
Public Notes | File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author. |
Byline Affiliations | Griffith University |
School of Management and Marketing |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/9zvz4/forecasting-shares-for-multiple-purchases-towards-a-test-of-the-new-individual-level-multinomial-probit
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