Forecasting Construction Cost Index through Artificial Intelligence

Article


Aslam, Bilal, Maqsoom, Ahsen, Inam, Hina, Basharat, Mubeen ul and Ullah, Fahim. 2023. "Forecasting Construction Cost Index through Artificial Intelligence." Societies. 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13100219
Article Title

Forecasting Construction Cost Index through Artificial Intelligence

ERA Journal ID211363
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsAslam, Bilal, Maqsoom, Ahsen, Inam, Hina, Basharat, Mubeen ul and Ullah, Fahim
EditorsBergman, M.M.
Journal TitleSocieties
Journal Citation13
Article Number219
Number of Pages15
Year2023
PublisherMDPI AG
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
ISSN2075-4698
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13100219
Web Address (URL)https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4698/13/10/219
Abstract

This study presents a novel approach for forecasting the construction cost index (CCI) of building materials in developing countries. Such estimations are challenging due to the need for a longer time, the influence of inflation, and fluctuating project prices in developing countries. This study used three techniques—a modified Artificial Neural Network (ANN), time series, and linear regression—to predict and forecast the local building material CCI in Pakistan. The predicted CCI is based on materials, including bricks, steel, cement, sand, and gravel. In addition, the swish activation function was introduced to increase the accuracy of the associated algorithms. The results suggest that the ANN model has superior prediction results, with the lowest Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Theil’s U statistic (U-Stat) values of 0.04, 28.3, and 0.62, respectively. The time series and regression models have ME values of 0.22 and 0.3, MAE values of 30.07 and 28.3, and U-Stat values of 0.65 and 0.64, respectively. The proposed models can assist contractors, project managers, and owners through an accurately estimated cost index. Such accurate CCIs help correctly estimate project budgets based on building material prices to mitigate project risks, delays, and failures.

Keywordsbuilding materials; construction cost index (CCI); developing countries; cost estimation; artificial neural network (ANN)
Article Publishing Charge (APC) Amount Paid0.0
Article Publishing Charge (APC) FundingResearcher
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020330201. Automation and technology in building and construction
330202. Building construction management and project planning
Byline AffiliationsNorthern Arizona University, United States
COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan
National University of Sciences and Technology, Pakistan
HITEC University, Pakistan
School of Surveying and Built Environment
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Munawar, Hafiz Suliman, Ullah, Fahim, Qayyum, Siddra, Khan, Sara Imran and Mojtahedi, Mohammad. 2021. "UAVs in disaster management: application of integrated aerial Imagery and convolutional neural network for flood detection." Sustainability. 13 (14), pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147547
A conceptual framework for blockchain smart contract adoption to manage real estate deals in smart cities
Ullah, Fahim and Al-Turjman, Fadi. 2023. "A conceptual framework for blockchain smart contract adoption to manage real estate deals in smart cities." Neural Computing and Applications. 35 (7), p. 5033–5054. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-021-05800-6
Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events
Atif, Salman, Umar, Muhammad and Ullah, Fahim. 2021. "Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events." Natural Hazards. 108, pp. 2357-2383. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04783-w
Risk management in sustainable smart cities governance: a TOE framework
Ullah, Fahim, Qayyum, Siddra, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Al-Turjman, Fadi and Sepasgozar, Samad M.E.. 2021. "Risk management in sustainable smart cities governance: a TOE framework." Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120743
Advertising through UAVs: Optimized path system for delivering smart real‐estate advertisement materials
Ullah, Fahim, Al-Turjman, Fadi, Qayyum, Siddra, Inam, Hina and Imran, Muhammad. 2021. "Advertising through UAVs: Optimized path system for delivering smart real‐estate advertisement materials." International Journal of Intelligent Systems. 36 (7), pp. 3429-3463. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.22422
Modelling users’ perception of the online real estate platforms in a digitally disruptive environment: an integrated KANO-SISQual approach
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad M.E., Shiwrozhan, Sara and Davis, Steven. 2021. "Modelling users’ perception of the online real estate platforms in a digitally disruptive environment: an integrated KANO-SISQual approach." Telematics and Informatics. 63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2021.101660
Application of deep learning on UAV-based aerial images for flood detection
Munawar, Hafiz Suliman, Ullah, Fahim, Qayyum, Siddra and Heravi, Amirhossein. 2021. "Application of deep learning on UAV-based aerial images for flood detection." Smart Cities. 4 (3), pp. 1220-1243. https://doi.org/10.3390/smartcities4030065
Best Value Contractor Selection in Road Construction Projects: ANP-Based Decision Support System
Hasnain, Muhammad, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Ullah, Fahim. 2018. "Best Value Contractor Selection in Road Construction Projects: ANP-Based Decision Support System." International Journal of Civil Engineering. 16 (6), pp. 695-714. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40999-017-0199-2
Concession period of public private partnership projects: industry–academia gap analysis
Ullah, Fahim and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin. 2018. "Concession period of public private partnership projects: industry–academia gap analysis." The International Journal of Construction Management. 18 (5), pp. 418-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2017.1333400
A systematic review of smart real estate technology: drivers of, and barriers to, the use of digital disruptive technologies and online platforms
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad M.E. and Wang, Changxin. 2018. "A systematic review of smart real estate technology: drivers of, and barriers to, the use of digital disruptive technologies and online platforms." Sustainability. 10 (9), pp. 1-44. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093142
System dynamics model to determine concession period of PPP infrastructure projects: overarching effects of critical success factors
Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Sepasgozar, Samad M. E. and Forcada, Nuria. 2018. "System dynamics model to determine concession period of PPP infrastructure projects: overarching effects of critical success factors." Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction. 10 (4). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000280
The performance gap in energy-efficient office buildings: how the occupants can help?
Ali, Qadeer, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Ullah, Fahim and Sepasgozar, Samad M. E.. 2020. "The performance gap in energy-efficient office buildings: how the occupants can help?" Energies. 13 (6). https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061480
Key factors influencing purchase or rent decisions in smart real estate investments: a system dynamics approach using online forum thread data
Ullah, Fahim and Sepasgozar, Samad M. E.. 2020. "Key factors influencing purchase or rent decisions in smart real estate investments: a system dynamics approach using online forum thread data." Sustainability. 12 (11), pp. 1-36. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114382
Smart digital marketing capabilities for sustainable property development: a case of Malaysia
Low, Sheen, Ullah, Fahim, Shiwrozhan, Sara, Sepasgozar, Samad M. E. and Lee, Chyi Lin. 2020. "Smart digital marketing capabilities for sustainable property development: a case of Malaysia." Sustainability. 12 (13), pp. 1-40. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135402
Contingency release during project execution: the contractor’s decision-making dilemma
Ayub, Bilal, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Ullah, Fahim. 2019. "Contingency release during project execution: the contractor’s decision-making dilemma." Project Management Journal. 50 (6), pp. 734-748. https://doi.org/10.1177/8756972819848250
Six Sigma in construction: a review of critical success factors
Qayyum Siddiqui, Siddra, Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Gabriel, Hamza Farooq. 2016. "Six Sigma in construction: a review of critical success factors." International Journal of Lean Six Sigma. 7 (2), pp. 171-186. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijlss-11-2015-0045
Labor Productivity Assessment Using Activity Analysis on Semi High-Rise Building Projects in Pakistan
Sheikh, Noaman Akbar, Ullah, Fahim, Ayub, Bilal and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin. 2017. "Labor Productivity Assessment Using Activity Analysis on Semi High-Rise Building Projects in Pakistan." Engineering Journal. 21 (4), pp. 273-286. https://doi.org/10.4186/ej.2017.21.4.273
Influence of Six Sigma on project success in construction industry of Pakistan
Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Qayyum Siddiqui, Siddra and Khurshid, Muhammad Bilal. 2017. "Influence of Six Sigma on project success in construction industry of Pakistan." The TQM Journal. 29 (2), pp. 276-309. https://doi.org/10.1108/TQM-11-2015-0136
Examining the impact of students’ attendance, sketching, visualization, and tutors experience on students’ performance: a case of building structures course in construction management
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad, Tahmasebinia, Faham, Sepasgozar, Saleh Mohammad Ebrahimzadeh and Davis, Steven. 2020. "Examining the impact of students’ attendance, sketching, visualization, and tutors experience on students’ performance: a case of building structures course in construction management." Construction Economics and Building. 20 (3), pp. 78-102. https://doi.org/10.5130/AJCEB.v20i3.7056
Competitiveness in the construction industry: A contractor’s perspective on barriers to improving the construction industry performance
Azeem, Moazzam, Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad J. and Qayyum, Siddra. 2020. "Competitiveness in the construction industry: A contractor’s perspective on barriers to improving the construction industry performance." Journal of Construction Engineering, Management & Innovation. 3 (3), pp. 193-219. https://doi.org/10.31462/jcemi.2020.03193219
Empirical evidence of extension of time in construction projects
Shabbar, Haroon, Ullah, Fahim, Ayub, Bilal, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Gabriel, Hamza Farooq. 2017. "Empirical evidence of extension of time in construction projects." Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction. 9 (3). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000217
It's all about perceptions: A DEMATEL approach to exploring user perceptions of real estate online platforms
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad M. E., Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Wang, Changxin Cynthia and Imran, Muhammad. 2021. "It's all about perceptions: A DEMATEL approach to exploring user perceptions of real estate online platforms." Ain Shams Engineering Journal. 12 (4), pp. 4297-4317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2021.04.023
Addressing disasters in smart cities through UAVs path planning and 5G communications: A systematic review
Qadir, Zakria, Ullah, Fahim, Munawar, Hafiz Suliman and Al-Turjman, Fadi. 2021. "Addressing disasters in smart cities through UAVs path planning and 5G communications: A systematic review." Computer Communications. 168, pp. 114-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comcom.2021.01.003
Managing smart cities through six sigma DMADICV method: A review-based conceptual framework
Qayyum, Siddra, Ullah, Fahim, Al-Turjman, Fadi and Mojtahedi, Mohammad. 2021. "Managing smart cities through six sigma DMADICV method: A review-based conceptual framework." Sustainable Cities and Society. 72, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103022
A review of public-private partnership: critical factors of concession period
Ullah, Fahim, Ayub, Bilal, Qayyum, Siddra and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin. 2016. "A review of public-private partnership: critical factors of concession period." Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction. 21 (3), pp. 269-300. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-02-2016-0011
Promoting Customer Loyalty and Satisfaction in Financial Institutions through Technology Integration: The Roles of Service Quality, Awareness, and Perceptions
Iqbal, Kamran, Munawar, Hafiz Suliman, Inam, Hina and Qayyum, Siddra. 2021. "Promoting Customer Loyalty and Satisfaction in Financial Institutions through Technology Integration: The Roles of Service Quality, Awareness, and Perceptions." Sustainability. 13 (23), pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132312951