Construction Price Index Prediction through ARMA with Inflation Effect: Case of Thailand Construction Industry

Article

Maqsoom, Ahsen, Prasittisopin, Lapyote, Musarat, Muhammad Ali, Ullah, Fahim and Alqahtani, Fahad K.. 2024. "Construction Price Index Prediction through ARMA with Inflation Effect: Case of Thailand Construction Industry." Buildings. 14 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14051243
Article Title

Construction Price Index Prediction through ARMA with Inflation Effect: Case of Thailand Construction Industry

ERA Journal ID210216
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsMaqsoom, Ahsen, Prasittisopin, Lapyote, Musarat, Muhammad Ali, Ullah, Fahim and Alqahtani, Fahad K.
EditorsHromada, E., Kaderabkova, B. and Cermakova, K.
Journal TitleBuildings
Journal Citation14 (5)
Article Number1243
Number of Pages23
Year2024
PublisherMDPI AG
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
ISSN2075-5309
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14051243
Web Address (URL)https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/14/5/1243
Abstract

Over-budgeting due to inflation is a common phenomenon in the construction industry of both developed and developing countries. Inflation, with time changes, leaves an adverse effect on the project budget. Hence, this study aims to focus on the construction price index (CPI) behavior and inspect its correlation with inflation in Thailand’s construction industry as there has not been much work performed. The prediction of CPI was made from 2024 to 2028, relying on the data set from 2000 to 2023. The relationship between inflation and CPI categories helps in prediction by considering inflation as the independent variable and CPI (All Commodities, Lumber and Wood Products, Cement, and Iron Products) as the dependent variable that was incorporated in EViews to perform automated ARIMA forecasting. The correlation results show that out of four CPI, only Iron Products showed a significant relationship with inflation. For All Commodities, Lumber, and Wood Products, the predicted values were fluctuating, while for Cement and Iron Products, a clear seasonal pattern was observed. This prediction gives a direction to construction industry practitioners to make necessary adjustments to their budget estimation before signing the contract to overcome cost overrun obstruction.

KeywordsBudget; construction price index; cost overrun; inflation; construction projects; prediction
Article Publishing Charge (APC) Amount Paid4367.0
Article Publishing Charge (APC) FundingResearcher
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020330202. Building construction management and project planning
400505. Construction materials
Byline AffiliationsChulalongkorn University, Thailand
PETRONAS University of Technology, Malaysia
School of Surveying and Built Environment
King Saud University, Saudi Arabia
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Ullah, Fahim and Al-Turjman, Fadi. 2023. "A conceptual framework for blockchain smart contract adoption to manage real estate deals in smart cities." Neural Computing and Applications. 35 (7), p. 5033–5054. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-021-05800-6
Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events
Atif, Salman, Umar, Muhammad and Ullah, Fahim. 2021. "Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events." Natural Hazards. 108, pp. 2357-2383. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04783-w
Risk management in sustainable smart cities governance: a TOE framework
Ullah, Fahim, Qayyum, Siddra, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Al-Turjman, Fadi and Sepasgozar, Samad M.E.. 2021. "Risk management in sustainable smart cities governance: a TOE framework." Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120743
Advertising through UAVs: Optimized path system for delivering smart real‐estate advertisement materials
Ullah, Fahim, Al-Turjman, Fadi, Qayyum, Siddra, Inam, Hina and Imran, Muhammad. 2021. "Advertising through UAVs: Optimized path system for delivering smart real‐estate advertisement materials." International Journal of Intelligent Systems. 36 (7), pp. 3429-3463. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.22422
Modelling users’ perception of the online real estate platforms in a digitally disruptive environment: an integrated KANO-SISQual approach
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad M.E., Shiwrozhan, Sara and Davis, Steven. 2021. "Modelling users’ perception of the online real estate platforms in a digitally disruptive environment: an integrated KANO-SISQual approach." Telematics and Informatics. 63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2021.101660
Application of deep learning on UAV-based aerial images for flood detection
Munawar, Hafiz Suliman, Ullah, Fahim, Qayyum, Siddra and Heravi, Amirhossein. 2021. "Application of deep learning on UAV-based aerial images for flood detection." Smart Cities. 4 (3), pp. 1220-1243. https://doi.org/10.3390/smartcities4030065
Best Value Contractor Selection in Road Construction Projects: ANP-Based Decision Support System
Hasnain, Muhammad, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Ullah, Fahim. 2018. "Best Value Contractor Selection in Road Construction Projects: ANP-Based Decision Support System." International Journal of Civil Engineering. 16 (6), pp. 695-714. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40999-017-0199-2
Concession period of public private partnership projects: industry–academia gap analysis
Ullah, Fahim and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin. 2018. "Concession period of public private partnership projects: industry–academia gap analysis." The International Journal of Construction Management. 18 (5), pp. 418-429. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2017.1333400
A systematic review of smart real estate technology: drivers of, and barriers to, the use of digital disruptive technologies and online platforms
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad M.E. and Wang, Changxin. 2018. "A systematic review of smart real estate technology: drivers of, and barriers to, the use of digital disruptive technologies and online platforms." Sustainability. 10 (9), pp. 1-44. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093142
System dynamics model to determine concession period of PPP infrastructure projects: overarching effects of critical success factors
Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Sepasgozar, Samad M. E. and Forcada, Nuria. 2018. "System dynamics model to determine concession period of PPP infrastructure projects: overarching effects of critical success factors." Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction. 10 (4). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000280
The performance gap in energy-efficient office buildings: how the occupants can help?
Ali, Qadeer, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Ullah, Fahim and Sepasgozar, Samad M. E.. 2020. "The performance gap in energy-efficient office buildings: how the occupants can help?" Energies. 13 (6). https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061480
Key factors influencing purchase or rent decisions in smart real estate investments: a system dynamics approach using online forum thread data
Ullah, Fahim and Sepasgozar, Samad M. E.. 2020. "Key factors influencing purchase or rent decisions in smart real estate investments: a system dynamics approach using online forum thread data." Sustainability. 12 (11), pp. 1-36. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114382
Smart digital marketing capabilities for sustainable property development: a case of Malaysia
Low, Sheen, Ullah, Fahim, Shiwrozhan, Sara, Sepasgozar, Samad M. E. and Lee, Chyi Lin. 2020. "Smart digital marketing capabilities for sustainable property development: a case of Malaysia." Sustainability. 12 (13), pp. 1-40. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135402
Contingency release during project execution: the contractor’s decision-making dilemma
Ayub, Bilal, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Ullah, Fahim. 2019. "Contingency release during project execution: the contractor’s decision-making dilemma." Project Management Journal. 50 (6), pp. 734-748. https://doi.org/10.1177/8756972819848250
Six Sigma in construction: a review of critical success factors
Qayyum Siddiqui, Siddra, Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Gabriel, Hamza Farooq. 2016. "Six Sigma in construction: a review of critical success factors." International Journal of Lean Six Sigma. 7 (2), pp. 171-186. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijlss-11-2015-0045
Labor Productivity Assessment Using Activity Analysis on Semi High-Rise Building Projects in Pakistan
Sheikh, Noaman Akbar, Ullah, Fahim, Ayub, Bilal and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin. 2017. "Labor Productivity Assessment Using Activity Analysis on Semi High-Rise Building Projects in Pakistan." Engineering Journal. 21 (4), pp. 273-286. https://doi.org/10.4186/ej.2017.21.4.273
Influence of Six Sigma on project success in construction industry of Pakistan
Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Qayyum Siddiqui, Siddra and Khurshid, Muhammad Bilal. 2017. "Influence of Six Sigma on project success in construction industry of Pakistan." The TQM Journal. 29 (2), pp. 276-309. https://doi.org/10.1108/TQM-11-2015-0136
Examining the impact of students’ attendance, sketching, visualization, and tutors experience on students’ performance: a case of building structures course in construction management
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad, Tahmasebinia, Faham, Sepasgozar, Saleh Mohammad Ebrahimzadeh and Davis, Steven. 2020. "Examining the impact of students’ attendance, sketching, visualization, and tutors experience on students’ performance: a case of building structures course in construction management." Construction Economics and Building. 20 (3), pp. 78-102. https://doi.org/10.5130/AJCEB.v20i3.7056
Competitiveness in the construction industry: A contractor’s perspective on barriers to improving the construction industry performance
Azeem, Moazzam, Ullah, Fahim, Thaheem, Muhammad J. and Qayyum, Siddra. 2020. "Competitiveness in the construction industry: A contractor’s perspective on barriers to improving the construction industry performance." Journal of Construction Engineering, Management & Innovation. 3 (3), pp. 193-219. https://doi.org/10.31462/jcemi.2020.03193219
Empirical evidence of extension of time in construction projects
Shabbar, Haroon, Ullah, Fahim, Ayub, Bilal, Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin and Gabriel, Hamza Farooq. 2017. "Empirical evidence of extension of time in construction projects." Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction. 9 (3). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000217
It's all about perceptions: A DEMATEL approach to exploring user perceptions of real estate online platforms
Ullah, Fahim, Sepasgozar, Samad M. E., Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin, Wang, Changxin Cynthia and Imran, Muhammad. 2021. "It's all about perceptions: A DEMATEL approach to exploring user perceptions of real estate online platforms." Ain Shams Engineering Journal. 12 (4), pp. 4297-4317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2021.04.023
Addressing disasters in smart cities through UAVs path planning and 5G communications: A systematic review
Qadir, Zakria, Ullah, Fahim, Munawar, Hafiz Suliman and Al-Turjman, Fadi. 2021. "Addressing disasters in smart cities through UAVs path planning and 5G communications: A systematic review." Computer Communications. 168, pp. 114-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comcom.2021.01.003
Managing smart cities through six sigma DMADICV method: A review-based conceptual framework
Qayyum, Siddra, Ullah, Fahim, Al-Turjman, Fadi and Mojtahedi, Mohammad. 2021. "Managing smart cities through six sigma DMADICV method: A review-based conceptual framework." Sustainable Cities and Society. 72, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103022
A review of public-private partnership: critical factors of concession period
Ullah, Fahim, Ayub, Bilal, Qayyum, Siddra and Thaheem, Muhammad Jamaluddin. 2016. "A review of public-private partnership: critical factors of concession period." Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction. 21 (3), pp. 269-300. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-02-2016-0011