Hydrogen Energy Demand Growth Prediction and Assessment (2021–2050) Using a System Thinking and System Dynamics Approach
Article
Article Title | Hydrogen Energy Demand Growth Prediction and Assessment (2021–2050) Using a System Thinking and System Dynamics Approach |
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ERA Journal ID | 211776 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Yusaf, Talal (Author), Laimon, Mohamd (Author), Alrefae, Waleed (Author), Kadirgama, Kumaran (Author), Al Dhahad, Hayder (Author), Ramasamy, Devarajan (Author), Kamarulzaman, Mohd Kamal (Author) and Yousif, Belal (Author) |
Journal Title | Applied Sciences |
Journal Citation | 12 (2), pp. 1-16 |
Article Number | 781 |
Number of Pages | 16 |
Year | 2022 |
Publisher | MDPI AG |
Place of Publication | Switzerland |
ISSN | 2076-3417 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3390/app12020781 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/2/781 |
Abstract | Adoption of hydrogen energy as an alternative to fossil fuels could be a major step towards decarbonising and fulfilling the needs of the energy sector. Hydrogen can be an ideal alternative for many fields compared with other alternatives. However, there are many potential environmental challenges that are not limited to production and distribution systems, but they also focus on how hydrogen is used through fuel cells and combustion pathways. The use of hydrogen has received little attention in research and policy, which may explain the widely claimed belief that nothing but water is released as a by-product when hydrogen energy is used. We adopt systems thinking and system dynamics approaches to construct a conceptual model for hydrogen energy, with a special focus on the pathways of hydrogen use, to assess the potential unintended consequences, and possible interventions; to highlight the possible growth of hydrogen energy by 2050. The results indicate that the combustion pathway may increase the risk of the adoption of hydrogen as a combustion fuel, as it produces NOx, which is a key air pollutant that causes environmental deterioration, which may limit the application of a combustion pathway if no intervention is made. The results indicate that the potential range of global hydrogen demand is rising, ranging from 73 to 158 Mt in 2030, 73 to 300 Mt in 2040, and 73 to 568 Mt in 2050, depending on the scenario presented. |
Keywords | Emissions; Hydrogen combustion pathway; Hydrogen demand; Hydrogen energy; Hydrogen fuel cell pathway; Nitrogen oxides; Renewable alternative fuel; System dynamics; Systems thinking |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 401703. Energy generation, conversion and storage (excl. chemical and electrical) |
400402. Chemical and thermal processes in energy and combustion | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
Byline Affiliations | Central Queensland University |
Al-Hussein Bin Talal University, Jordan | |
Public Authority for Applied Education and Training, Kuwait | |
University of Malaysia Pahang, Malaysia | |
University of Technology, Iraq | |
School of Engineering |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q7046/hydrogen-energy-demand-growth-prediction-and-assessment-2021-2050-using-a-system-thinking-and-system-dynamics-approach
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