Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events

Article


Domeisen, Daniela I. V., White, Christopher J., Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla, Munoz, Angel G., Janiga, Matthew A., Vitart, Frederic, Wulff, C. Ole, Antoine, Salome, Ardilouze, Constantin, Batte, Lauriane, Bloomfield, Hannah C., Brayshaw, David J., Camargo, Suzana J., Charlton-Perez, Andrew, Collins, Dan, Cowan, Tim, del Mar Chaves, Maria, Ferranti, Laura, Gomez, Rosario, ..., Tian, Di. 2022. "Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (6), pp. E1473-E1501. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
Article Title

Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events

ERA Journal ID1961
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsDomeisen, Daniela I. V. (Author), White, Christopher J. (Author), Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla (Author), Munoz, Angel G. (Author), Janiga, Matthew A. (Author), Vitart, Frederic (Author), Wulff, C. Ole (Author), Antoine, Salome (Author), Ardilouze, Constantin (Author), Batte, Lauriane (Author), Bloomfield, Hannah C. (Author), Brayshaw, David J. (Author), Camargo, Suzana J. (Author), Charlton-Perez, Andrew (Author), Collins, Dan (Author), Cowan, Tim (Author), del Mar Chaves, Maria (Author), Ferranti, Laura (Author), Gomez, Rosario (Author), Gonzalez, Paula L. M. (Author), Gonzalez Romero, Carmen (Author), Infanti, Johnna M. (Author), Karozis, Stelios (Author), Kim, Hera (Author), Kolstad, Erik W. (Author), LaJoie, Emerson (Author), Lledo, Llorenc (Author), Magnusson, Linus (Author), Malguzzi, Piero (Author), Manrique-Sunen, Andrea (Author), Mastrangelo, Daniele (Author), Materia, Stefano (Author), Medina, Hanoi (Author), Palma, Lluis (Author), Pineda, Luis E. (Author), Sfetsos, Athanasios (Author), Son, Seok-Woo (Author), Soret, Albert (Author), Strazzo, Sarah (Author) and Tian, Di (Author)
Journal TitleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Journal Citation103 (6), pp. E1473-E1501
Number of Pages29
Year2022
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0003-0007
1520-0477
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/6/BAMS-D-20-0221.1.xml
Abstract

Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for proba-bilistic subseasonal prediction on time scales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit predictability on time scales of 3–4 weeks, while this time scale is 2–3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least predictable among the considered case studies. Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic predictability on time scales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden–Julian oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event-dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal predictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events.

KeywordsMadden-Julian oscillation; Severe storms; Ensembles; Forecast verification/skill; Probability; Forecasts/models/distribution; Flood event
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370101. Adverse weather events
370201. Climate change processes
370903. Natural hazards
370105. Atmospheric dynamics
370108. Meteorology
Public Notes

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Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Lausanne, Switzerland
University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Switzerland
Columbia University, United States
Naval Research Laboratory, United States
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom
University of Toulouse, France
University of Reading, United Kingdom
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States
University of Southern Queensland
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy
International Regional Organization for Plant and Animal Health, El Salvador
National Centre for Scientific Research, Greece
Seoul National University, Korea
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Spain
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy
Auburn University, United States
Yachay Tech University, Ecuador
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, United States
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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