Performance calibration in sport: implications for self-confidence and metacognitive biases

Performance calibration in sport: implications for self-confidence and metacognitive biases

[Abstract]: When people are asked to make judgments about their own performance, either retrospectively or
prospectively, they typically overestimate their level of performance, leading some researchers to claim that
overconfidence is a pervasive metacognitive bias. Evidence for such a trait in sport has implications for the
way we assess confidence and for our understanding of athletes' perceptions of their own abilities and their
reactions to performance feedback. To gain a better understanding of this issue, we used the calibration
paradigm to measure metacognitive bias in a sample of 54 male golfers varying widely in age (13 to 75
years) and ability level (1 to 27 handicap). Golfers were required to complete a putting task and a chipping
task (20 trials each) after first estimating how well they would perform on each of the tasks. The exercise
was repeated once. Results indicated that golfers tended to be reasonably well-calibrated on the putting tasks
but slightly overconfident on the chipping tasks used in this study. They were also overconfident on a test of
knowledge of golf rules. There was no effect for level of expertise. Golfers differed in their ability to use
feedback on the first set of trials to achieve better calibration on a second set of trials. Discussion centres on
the potential benefits of using the calibration paradigm in a range of sports as an adjunct to assessments and
interventions by sports psychologists.

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